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Daniil Medvedev vs. Jesper De Jong Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & How to Watch
The 11th seed, Daniil Medvedev, starts his 2026 Australian Open run against Jesper De Jong in the first round in Melbourne. Medvedev comes in off a Brisbane title over Brandon Nakashima in straight sets. He is a hard-court specialist, having elite stats in 2025, with 534 aces, 76% first-serve points won, and a strong 33% first-serve return points won. That return stat is the real separator, because it creates sustained pressure even against decent servers.
De Jong, ranked No. 73, has had a respectable trajectory with main-draw Slam appearances last season (outside Melbourne) and a finals run in Nordea. But he enters the Australian Open off early exits in Hong Kong and Adelaide. His 2025 ATP stats, with 74% first-serve points won, 28% first-serve return points won, and 36% break-point conversion, suggest that he can be competitive.
Here, Medvedev is overwhelmingly likely to win, but with the moneyline priced near unplayable, the only real question is whether De Jong can steal enough games or a set to disrupt the routine straight-sets way.
For today’s tennis picks, here’s how we’re betting on Daniil Medvedev vs. Jesper De Jong today, including our Best Bet, supporting angles, and a set-score prop for bigger prices.
Best Bet: Total Games Under 30.5 (-118, FanDuel)
Book: Best price at FanDuel
Our best bet for Daniil Medvedev vs. Jesper De Jong is Total Games Under 30.5 (-118, FanDuel).
Given below are the latest odds for Daniil Medvedev vs. Jesper De Jong from the top sportsbooks. We are looking at the match money line, game handicap and total games, plus some set betting markets where available.
| Market | FanDuel | BetMGM |
| Moneyline | Medvedev -3500 / De Jong +1280 | Medvedev -1800 / De Jong +800 |
| Game Handicap | Medvedev -8.5 +104 / De Jong +8.5 -136 | Medvedev -8.5 +115 / De Jong +8.5 -150 |
| Total Games | Over 30.5 -112 / Under 30.5 -118 | Over 30.5 -114 / Under 30.5 -118 |
| Set Betting | Medvedev 3-0 -195 / De Jong 3-0 +3500 | Medvedev 3-0 -182 / De Jong 3-0 +3300 |
| Total Sets | Over 3.5 +146 / Under 3.5 -200 | Over 3.5 +145 / Under 3.5 -115 |
Our Pick: Daniil Medvedev -5.5 Games (-126, FanDuel)
This is one of those Round 1 matches where the market is right on the outcome but still beatable on efficiency. The moneyline is basically dead; (-3500) demands near-perfection in result probability. That doesn’t always happen in tennis. One shaky service game, one dip in focus, or one extended set can change that.
The cleaner approach is to price the most likely match script. Medvedev’s 2025 stats support dominance through repeated pressure. The 33% first-serve return points won stands out because it indicates he consistently creates holds for opponents. De Jong’s serving numbers are fine (74% first-serve points won), but his return level (28% first-serve return points won) doesn’t suggest he’ll generate enough disruption.
That’s why Under 30.5 games (-118) is the most efficient buy here. The main risk is volatility in best-of-five openers. If Medvedev sleepwalks through one set and drops it, the total is immediately fragile. But given the recent form (Brisbane title) and the return edge, the median outcome still projects as a controlled straight-sets win.
Daniil Medvedev and Jesper De Jong do not have a head-to-head record yet.
Projection: Daniil Medvedev wins in straight sets.
Higher Variance Set Prop: Daniil Medvedev 3-0 (-195, FanDuel). However, given that this is a higher-variance bet, it is recommended to use this as a secondary option rather than a primary one.
TV broadcasters for the 2026 Australian Open include ESPN and ESPN2 in the United States, TNT Sports in the United Kingdom, Channel 9 Network in Australia, Eurosport across Europe, beIN Sports in the Middle East and North Africa, and TSN/RDS in Canada, with streaming on 9NOW for Australian viewers.
Streaming options vary by region and often require subscriptions. Viewers can access full coverage via ESPN+ (USA, all courts/multiview), Discovery+ (UK/Europe), Stan Sport (Australia), and global platforms like Tennis TV for select ATP matches on devices worldwide.
| Match | Daniil Medvedev vs. Jesper De Jong |
| Date | January 19, 2026 |
| Start Time | Not before 11:30 AM AEDT |
| Tournament | Australian Open 2026 |
| Event Type | Men’s Singles (Grand Slam) |
| Surface | Outdoor Hard Court |
| Court | Margaret Court Arena, Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia |
| TV Coverage | ESPN, ESPN2, Tennis Channel (US), TNT Sports (UK), Channel 9 Network (Australia), Eurosport (Europe), beIN Sports (MENA), TSN/RDS (Canada), 9NOW |
| Live Streaming | ESPN+ (US, all courts), Discovery+ (UK/Europe), Stan Sport (Australia), Tennis TV (global ATP select) |
Image Credit: Imagn Images
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