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Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs. Rinky Hijikata Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & How to Watch
Top seed Alejandro Davidovich Fokina faces wild card Rinky Hijikata in the second round of the 2026 Adelaide International, with Fokina entering fresh off a first-round bye and Hijikata already through via a straight-sets win over Tristan Schoolkate. Simply put, it’s a straightforward “seed vs. wild card” setup.
From a profile standpoint, Fokina is the higher-ceiling player and the one with the more credible ATP-level resume. Ranked world No. 15 (career-high No. 14 in Nov 2025), he put together multiple finals last season and backed it up with deeper runs in big events. Fokina’s 2025 stats support him as the stronger all-court option with 246 aces, 68% first-serve points won, 31% first-serve return points won, and a solid 43% break-point conversion across 519 opportunities.
Hijikata, ranked No. 115, has most of his best results coming at the Challenger level. His ATP-level stat sample is lighter, but his stats are still competitive enough with 97 aces, 66% first-serve points won, 28% first-serve return points won, and 39% break-point conversion on 142 opportunities. That’s good enough to force holds and make sets look closer than the ranking gap suggests.
For today’s tennis picks, here’s how we’re betting on Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs. Rinky Hijikata today, including our Best Bet, supporting angles, and a set-score prop for bigger prices.
Best Bet: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina -3.5 Games (-105, BetMGM)
Book: Best price at BetMGM
Our best bet for Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs. Rinky Hijikata is Alejandro Davidovich Fokina -3.5 Games (-105, BetMGM).
| Market | FanDuel | BetMGM |
| Moneyline | Fokina -300 / Hijikata +225 | Fokina -250 / Hijikata +195 |
| Game Handicap | – | Fokina -3.5 (-105) / Hijikata +3.5 (-125) |
| Total Games | – | Over -110 / Under -120 |
| Set Betting | – | Fokina 2-0 (+100) / Hijikata 2-0 (+400) |
| Total Sets | – | Over +140 / Under -182 |
Our Pick: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina -3.5 Games (-105, BetMGM)
The market is saying Fokina is the deserved favorite, but the angle is whether the moneyline is efficient relative to the alternatives. BetMGM has Fokina around -250, while FanDuel is even steeper at -300, which puts heavy pressure on a player who can be brilliant but also has a documented history of volatility and physical drop-offs late in stretches.
That’s why the better pricing opportunity is in the handicap. Fokina’s edge should show up through repeated return pressure, with his 31% first-serve return points won standing out as the separator in this matchup. His 43% break conversion across a massive sample suggests he’s capable of turning opportunities into score separation. Hijikata’s serve numbers are solid enough to hold for stretches, but he’s not typically a player who creates a ton of return damage at the ATP level.
At Fokina -3.5 games (-105), you’re backing the favorite to win with a modest margin without needing a perfect performance.
Hijikata leads 1-0, winning at the 2024 US Open in four sets.
| Year | Winner | Event | Round | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Rinky Hijikata | US Open | Round of 128 | 7-6(1), 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 |
Projection: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina winning in straight sets.
Supplementary Set Bet (Higher Variance): Fokina 2-0 Sets (+100, BetMGM). But this is a higher variance bet, so this must be treated as a secondary option and not the primary one.
TV broadcasters for the ATP Adelaide International 2026 include Sky Sports Tennis in the UK, Tennis Channel in the USA, and Channel 9 for Australian viewers with streaming on 9NOW.
Streaming options depend on region and typically require a subscription. Viewers can watch via Sky Go (UK), the Tennis Channel app (USA), and Tennis TV, which covers all ATP 250 matches globally on devices.
| Match | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs. Rinky Hijikata |
| Date | January 14, 2026 |
| Start Time | Not before 6:30 PM ACDT |
| Tournament | Adelaide International 2026 |
| Event Type | Men’s Singles (ATP 250) |
| Surface | Outdoor Hard Court |
| Court | Centre Court, Memorial Drive Tennis Centre, Adelaide, Australia |
| TV Coverage | Tennis Channel (US), beIN Sports (Australia), Sky Sports (UK), 9NOW |
| Live Streaming | Sky Go (UK), the Tennis Channel app (USA), Tennis TV |
Mandatory Image Credit: Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images
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