Tommy Paul vs. Reilly Opelka Prediction, Odds & Best Bets (ATP Adelaide International 2026, Round of 16, January 14)

Tommy Paul vs. Reilly Opelka Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & How to Watch

Second seed Tommy Paul meets unseeded Reilly Opelka in the second round of the 2026 Adelaide International. Paul arrives off a first-round bye, while Opelka has already logged a straight-set win over Alexei Popyrin.

Statistically, Paul is priced as the favorite because he wins points in more ways. Last season, he posted 251 aces, won 72% of first-serve points, and more importantly for this matchup, won 32% of first-serve return points with a 45% break-point conversion rate (373 chances). That return efficiency matters against an opponent like Opelka, because Paul doesn’t need to dominate return games but rather just to consistently get involved and take advantage of the limited looks he’ll get.

"I believe Tommy Paul is a top 10 player. He has no glaring weakness."

Prakash and Sam have high hopes for the American in 2026 📈🦅 pic.twitter.com/pygbdlqU8r
— Tennis Channel (@TennisChannel) January 6, 2026

Opelka’s stats explain why the market still respects the underdog path. He hit an enormous 790 aces last season and won 79% of first-serve points, which is exactly the profile that drags sets into tiebreak territory and increases variance. The weakness is on the other side of the ball with just 21% first-serve return points won, plus a 30% break-point conversion rate on 174 chances. In other words, Opelka can absolutely hold serve all day, but if Paul’s service games stay stable, Opelka may not create enough return pressure to justify the upset.

For today’s tennis picks, here’s how we’re betting on Tommy Paul vs. Reilly Opelka today, including our Best Bet, supporting angles, and a set-score prop for bigger prices.

Tournament & Round: Adelaide International, Round of 16
Surface: Outdoor Hard Court
Format: Best of Three Sets
Date & Start Time: January 14, Not before 12:10 PM ACDT Local Time
Court: Centre Court, Memorial Drive Tennis Centre, Adelaide

Best Bet: Tommy Paul Moneyline (-162, BetMGM)

Book: Best price at BetMGM

Our best bet for Tommy Paul vs. Reilly Opelka is Tommy Paul Moneyline (-162, BetMGM).

Tommy Paul vs. Reilly Opelka Odds

Market	FanDuel	BetMGM
Moneyline	Paul -166 / Opelka +136	Paul -162 / Opelka +130
Game Handicap	–	Paul -1.5 (-125) / Opelka +1.5 (-105)
Total Games	–	Over -110 / Under -122
Set Betting	–	Paul 2-0 (+150) / Opelka 2-0 (+300)
Total Sets	–	Over +125 / Under -167

Odds Updated: January 13, 2026 – 8:10 AM EST

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Tommy Paul vs. Reilly Opelka Prediction & Picks

Our Pick: Tommy Paul Moneyline (-162, BetMGM)

This is a matchup where the better overall player is correctly favored, but the serve stats of the underdog keep the price from getting out of hand. Paul’s edge is in how many ways he can win points, extend rallies, and apply pressure in return games. Opelka’s edge is much simpler, with elite hold potential that can turn sets into tiebreak coin flips.

From a betting perspective, the moneyline is prioritized instead of chasing aggressive spread angles. Opelka doesn’t need to outplay Paul for long stretches but to keep serving at a high enough level to reach 6-6. Paul can still be the better player and win, but the margin can be fragile.

At -162 (BetMGM), Paul’s price is efficient enough to justify the position because he’s the one with the return and rally equity. Opelka can spike above expectation for a set, but over a full best-of-three, Paul should generate more break chances and more points.

Tommy Paul Recent Form

Eastbourne – R16
Wimbledon – Second Round
Cincinnati – R32
US Open – Third Round
Brisbane – R32

Having played only 7 matches since July hasn't stopped him from doing this for the 3rd straight year

Tommy Paul ends the 2025 season inside the ATP Top 20 pic.twitter.com/VnkePT1D2P
— Mario Boccardi (@boccardi_marioo) November 5, 2025

Reilly Opelka Recent Form

Shanghai – R128
Basel – Quarterfinal
Paris Masters – R64
Hellenic – R32
Brisbane – R16

Reilly rides on ✌️

Opelka defeats Popyrin 6-3 7-6 to set a round two clash with Tommy Paull at #AdelaideTennis pic.twitter.com/feDNjRMobw
— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) January 12, 2026

Head-to-Head History

Paul leads 1-0, as he ousted Opelka in the Dallas quarterfinals last year.

Year	Winner	Event	Round	Score
2025	Tommy Paul	Dallas	Quarterfinal	7-6(3), 6-2

Final Score Prediction & Set-Betting Prop

Projection: Tommy Paul winning in three sets.

Higher-variance set prop: Tommy Paul 2-0 Sets (+150, BetMGM). Higher payout than ML, but obviously higher variance because one tiebreak or a single loose Paul service game flips it. Thus, its better to keep it as a secondary option.

How can I watch Tommy Paul vs. Reilly Opelka on TV and live stream?

TV broadcasters for the ATP Adelaide International 2026 include Sky Sports Tennis in the UK, Tennis Channel in the USA, and Channel 9 for Australian viewers with streaming on 9NOW.

Streaming options depend on region and typically require a subscription. Viewers can watch via Sky Go (UK), the Tennis Channel app (USA), and Tennis TV, which covers all ATP 250 matches globally on devices.

Match	Tommy Paul vs. Reilly Opelka
Date	January 14, 2026
Start Time	Not before 12:10 PM ACDT
Tournament	Adelaide International 2026
Event Type	Men’s Singles (ATP 250)
Surface	Outdoor Hard Court
Court	Centre Court, Memorial Drive Tennis Centre, Adelaide, Australia
TV Coverage	Tennis Channel (US), beIN Sports (Australia), Sky Sports (UK), 9NOW
Live Streaming	Sky Go (UK), the Tennis Channel app (USA), Tennis TV

Mandatory Image Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

Rudra Dubey

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I’m an academic turned sports writer from Raipur, India, specializing in the NFL, MMA, and tennis at The Playoffs. I previously wrote for Sportskeeda and hold a B.A. and M.A. in History. My journey into sports media began far from the field, rooted in the arts and sciences. Funny enough, I didn’t grow up a sports fan; I used to see it all as just noise. But a fateful writing job introduced me to the world of sports, and what began as a gig quickly became a passion. I understood those voices aren’t noise; they’re emotions of true sports fans, and now I am one of them, writing with the same energy I once questioned.