Holger Rune vs. Hamad Medjedovic Head-to-Head, Prediction and Betting Odds for ATP Japan Open 2025 Round-1

Second career meeting between the two players in Tokyo.

No. 3 seed Holger Rune faces Hamad Medjedovic in the 2025 Japan Open Round of 32 on Thursday. While Rune is looking for a quick turnaround after a disappointing outing at the Laver Cup, Medjedovic will compete in his first match since suffering opening round defeats in singles and doubles at the US Open. The winner of this clash will take on either Alex Michelsen or Ethan Quinn in the pre-quarterfinal stage. After we preview the highly intense match-up for you, BetMGM will offer the plethora of betting odds for this Tokyo thriller.

Holger Rune vs Hamad Medjedovic Match Preview

World No. 11 Holger Rune has faced an inconsistent season so far. The Danish prodigy has managed to make a few deep runs in big tournaments, but has failed to hold his nerve and make a final push. His only headliner moment came at the Barcelona Open, where the 22-year-old beat Carlos Alcaraz to lift the trophy over his shoulders. He also made the Indian Wells final, and reached the Round of 16 at two majors. Rune has won 72% first serve points and 54% second serve points on hard courts this year.

What a night 👀@holgerrune participated in “Kabuki Dance Renjishi” a traditional Japanese performance at the Tokyo player party 🦁@japanopentennis | #kinoshitajotennis pic.twitter.com/EIGYZT6r2K
— ATP Tour (@atptour) September 24, 2025

Still hunting for his maiden title charge, Hamad Medjedovic has showcased flashes of brilliance on tour. The Russian made his first tour-level final at the end of 2024, and followed it up with another runner-up finish at the 2025 Open 13 in February. By reaching the Roland Garros Round of 32, Medjedovic achieved his career-best Grand Slam outing. His career record of 38-30 places him at No. 63 in the world at the moment. This talented 22-year-old also made the last eight at Mallorca and Winston-Salem – improving his success rate to 59% in 2025.

Tweener perfection, by Hamad Medjedovic 💯#CincyTennis pic.twitter.com/DIyXrOhmBM
— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) August 10, 2025

Holger Rune vs Hamad Medjedovic Head to Head Record

Medjedovic leads the head-to-head against Rune by 1-0. They faced each other at the 2025 Davis Cup Qualifiers, where the Russian made a daring comeback to stun Rune in three sets.

Event	Round	Winner	Score
2025 Davis Cup	Round Robin	Hamad Medjedovic	2-6 6-3 6-1

Holger Rune vs Hamad Medjedovic Career Comparison

Holger Rune	Category	Hamad Medjedovic
11	Current Ranking	63
168-103	Career W-L Record	38-30
29-18	YTD W-L Record	17-12
5	Career Titles	0
1	YTD Titles	0
0	Grand Slams	0

Holger Rune vs Hamad Medjedovic ATP Japan Open 2025 Prediction

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Rune is a strong hard court specialist, and has a good end-of-season record on tour. The Dane enjoys back court exchanges, and will look to dismantle the Medjedovic service games. On the Russian’s side, his main aim must be to pounce on any half chances offered by Rune. The third seed has a tendency to suffer from lapses in concentration, leading to a string of unforced errors in the middle of the match. Regardless, this will be a hard fought match-up.

Prediction: Holger Rune in three sets.

Holger Rune vs Hamad Medjedovic ATP Japan Open 2025 Betting Odds

Rune is a narrow favorite in the pre-match betting odds against Medjedovic. Given below are the odds for the match result, as well as in-match specifics (as per BetMGM):

Holger Rune Win: 13/20
Hamad Medjedovic Win: 6/5

Total Games >23.5: 49/50
Total Games <23.5: 10/13
Medjedovic +1.5 (Game Handicap): 23/25
Rune to Win By 2-1: 2/1
Medjedovic to Win At Least 1 Set (Yes): 4/9
Total Number of Tiebreaks >0.5: Evens

(According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)

(Image Credits: David Gonzales, Imagn Images)

Sankalp Harikrishnan

A passionate sports fan through and through, I am currently pursuing my MA in Global Sports Journalism. I specialise in tennis and football writing at The Playoffs News, and I have prior experience working at EssentiallySports and Sportskeeda. Born and raised in Bengaluru, India, sport was my safe space right from my childhood. After trying my hand at multiple sports and representing my educational institutions in cricket, badminton and table tennis, I found sports media to be my calling.