Daniil Medvedev vs. Cameron Norrie Head-to-Head, Preview, Prediction, and Betting Odds for ATP China Open 2025 Round – 1

Medvedev begins China Open campaign against tricky Brit Norrie in Beijing.

Eighth seed Daniil Medvedev faces Britain’s Cameron Norrie in the first round of the China Open 2025. Medvedev has struggled for titles since lifting the Rome Masters in 2023, falling short in six finals, including Halle this season, where he was beaten by Alexander Bublik. The 2021 US Open champion has also endured several early exits this year, often failing to move past the third round.

Still, there have been glimpses of form with semifinal runs in Marseille and Indian Wells and quarterfinal appearances in Doha, Dubai, Madrid, Libema, and Washington. Statistically, he remains dangerous on serve and return, firing 382 aces with 76% first-serve points won, 32% return points won, and a 36% break-point conversion rate across 403 opportunities.

Welcome! Daniil Medvedev has arrived in Beijing.#2025ChinaOpen #AllForPassion pic.twitter.com/oS9d4mlW3H
— China Open (@ChinaOpen) September 22, 2025

Norrie has also endured an up-and-down year. The Brit reached the fourth round of Roland Garros, his best showing at the clay Slam, and made the semifinals in Geneva, along with quarterfinals in Delray Beach and Wimbledon. Yet inconsistency has kept him from building momentum, with several early defeats, including two to Novak Djokovic, halting progress. His season stats include 240 aces, 69% first-serve points won, 27% return points won, and a 39% break-point conversion rate across 326 opportunities.

Cameron Norrie continues his impressive form, defeating No.7 seed Lorenzo Musetti to reach the Round of 16 at the @mubadalacitidc 🇬🇧 pic.twitter.com/9MqEeSQ5bT
— TNT Sports (@tntsports) July 22, 2025

Daniil Medvedev vs. Cameron Norrie Head-to-Head Record

Daniil Medvedev holds a 4-1 lead in his rivalry with Cameron Norrie. The matchup dates back to 2019 in Shanghai, where Medvedev began a run of commanding straight-sets victories that stretched through their next several encounters, including their meeting in Rome this season. However, Norrie finally broke through in the 2025 Roland Garros with a five-set marathon win, flipping the script.

Year	Event	Round	Winner	Score
2025	Roland Garros	Round of 128	Cameron Norrie	7-5, 6-3, 4-6, 1-6, 7-5
2025	Rome	Round of 64	Daniil Medvedev	6-4, 6-2
2024	Miami	Round of 32	Daniil Medvedev	7-5, 6-1
2022	Los Cabos	Final	Daniil Medvedev	7-5, 6-0
2019	Shanghai	Round of 32	Daniil Medvedev	6-3, 6-1

Daniil Medvedev vs. Cameron Norrie Comparison

Daniil Medvedev	Category	Cameron Norrie
18	Current Ranking	34
406-176	Career W-L	235-175
27-19	YTD W-L	26-21
20	Career Titles	5
1	Grand Slams	0
0	YTD Titles	0

Daniil Medvedev vs. Cameron Norrie Prediction

Medvedev’s baseline solidity and head-to-head edge make him the safer pick, though Norrie’s Paris upset proves he can stretch the Russian in long rallies. It must be noted that, given the Russian’s current form, this match remains extremely unpredictable. But on paper, Medvedev has the edge.

Wow a big shock in the ATP 250 Hangzhou as the wildcard and world ranked 196 Yibing Wu takes out the No2 seed Daniil Medvedev.

Medvedev was 75 53 up in the match but his poor form continues, its Wus first ever Top 20 win in front of his fans too. 👏 🇨🇳pic.twitter.com/AQLdaJoeRH
— Pavvy G (@pavyg) September 21, 2025

Prediction: Daniil Medvedev in straight sets

Daniil Medvedev vs. Cameron Norrie ATP China Open 2025 Betting Odds

At 33/100, Medvedev is a clear favorite, while Norrie at 23/10 carries underdog value but faces a steep challenge against the higher seed.

Here are the betting odds according to BetMGM:

Daniil Medvedev: 33/100

Cameron Norrie: 23/10

Here are the odds for total games as well as total sets for both players (sourced via BetMGM):

Set 1 Winner Medvedev: 2/5

Set 1 Winner Norrie: 37/20

Total Games 19.5 Under: 41/20

Total Games 19.5 Over: 7/20

Total Sets 2.5 Under: 1/2

Total Sets 2.5 Over: 6/4

(According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)

Mandatory Image Credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

Rudra Dubey

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I’m an academic turned sports writer from Raipur, India, specializing in the NFL, MMA, and tennis at The Playoffs. I previously wrote for Sportskeeda and hold a B.A. and M.A. in History. My journey into sports media began far from the field, rooted in the arts and sciences. Funny enough, I didn’t grow up a sports fan; I used to see it all as just noise. But a fateful writing job introduced me to the world of sports, and what began as a gig quickly became a passion. I understood those voices aren’t noise; they’re emotions of true sports fans, and now I am one of them, writing with the same energy I once questioned.