Lorenzo Musetti vs. Alejandro Tabilo Preview, Prediction and Betting Odds for ATP Chengdu Open 2025 Final

Who will prove their might at the ATP-250 in China?

Top seed Lorenzo Musetti is on the brink of capturing his maiden title of the 2025 season. Standing in the Italian’s way of glory, is World No. 112 Alejandro Tabilo of Chile. The duo is set to lock horns in the championship clash at the 2025 Chengdu Open on Tuesday. While Musetti is up to No. 7 in the ATP Live Race to Turin, the elusive tour-level trophy has been evading him throughout the current campaign. Will it be second time lucky for him, after his Madrid Open finals loss earlier this year? With the help of BetMGM, we will preview the stats and odds for this match.

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Lorenzo Musetti vs Alejandro Tabilo Match Preview

World No. 9 Lorenzo Musetti reached his maiden hard court ATP final in Chengdu last year. On Tuesday, he will contest his seventh final overall, and second of 2025. The purple patch of Musetti’s season came during the European clay court swing, where he reached a final and three semifinals. With a convincing 33-13 record so far, he regained lost touch by making it to the quarterfinal stage at the 2025 US Open. After overcoming Prizmic and Basilashvili with fighting performances, the 23-year-old won 92% first serve points en route to a straight sets rout over Shevchenko in his semifinal.

👋 @Lorenzo1Musetti 👋

A flawless Musetti goes back-to-back into Chengdu finals 6-3 6-1 over Shevchenko@ChengduOpen | #ChengduOpen pic.twitter.com/Tp667fHDBy
— ATP Tour (@atptour) September 22, 2025

Having come through qualifying, Alejandro Tabilo has endured a week-long run of extravagant tennis. The Chilean won two titles last year, but arrived at this event with a poor 5-13 record in the ongoing season. The former Top-20 player has dropped to World No. 112, and is looking to regain lost form in China. Tabilo has lost just two sets en route to the final – against Lloyd Harris in the qualifiers and Christopher O’Connell in the quarterfinals. The 28-year-old wins 80% service games and 12% return games on this surface.

Clinic 😤

Alejandro Tabilo defeats Brandon Nakashima 6-4 7-6 to advance to his 5th ATP Tour final! 📈#ChengduOpen pic.twitter.com/4Elii4EFBU
— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) September 22, 2025

The head-to-head record between Lorenzo Musetti and Alejandro Tabilo is 0-0. They will play their first tour-level match in the 2025 Chengdu Open final.

Lorenzo Musetti vs Alejandro Tabilo Career Comparison

Lorenzo Musetti	Category	Alejandro Tabilo
9	Current Ranking	112
165-124	Career W-L Record	66-68
33-13	YTD W-L Record	9-13
2	Career Titles	2
0	YTD Titles	0
0	Grand Slams	0

Lorenzo Musetti vs Alejandro Tabilo ATP Chengdu Open 2025 Prediction

While Tabilo’s two extra matches could mean he is more accustomed to the conditions, it also brings fatigue into the picture. Moreover, the 23-year-old Italian has an abundance of experience to manoeuvre his way to success. A mixture of the cross-court slide backhand and down the line backhand winner could be the recipe for success when it comes to Musetti. It will boil down to whether or not Tabilo can neutralize Musetti’s serve on a consistent basis, and refrain from engaging in longer rallies.

Prediction: Lorenzo Musetti in straight sets.

Lorenzo Musetti vs Alejandro Tabilo ATP Chengdu Open 2025 Betting Odds

Sichuan showdown 🇨🇳🏆@Lorenzo1Musetti 🆚 Tabilo@ChengduOpen | #ChengduOpen pic.twitter.com/IWm1BnUZeF
— ATP Tour (@atptour) September 22, 2025

Musetti is the heavy favorite in the 2025 Chengdu Open final against Tabilo. The World No. 9 has been given dominant odds of 7/20 to win in straight sets. According to the implied probability on the money line, he has an 80% chance of winning. Here are the odds (as per BetMGM):

Lorenzo Musetti Win: 7/20
Alejandro Tabilo Win: 9/4

Total Games >22.5: 17/20
Total Games <22.5: 10/11
Musetti -1.5 (Set Handicap): Evens
Musetti -3.5 (Game Handicap): 19/20
Musetti to Win 2-0: 19/20
Total Number of Tiebreaks <0.5: 8/11

(According to BetMGM: BetMGM offers exclusive promo codes, bonus deals and accurate odds for users upon signing up. Use BetMGM to ace your betting game in all sports!)

(Image Credits: Mike Frey, Imagn Images)

Sankalp Harikrishnan

A passionate sports fan through and through, I am currently pursuing my MA in Global Sports Journalism. I specialise in tennis and football writing at The Playoffs News, and I have prior experience working at EssentiallySports and Sportskeeda. Born and raised in Bengaluru, India, sport was my safe space right from my childhood. After trying my hand at multiple sports and representing my educational institutions in cricket, badminton and table tennis, I found sports media to be my calling.