2025 NHL Draft Lottery Odds & Format: Who Will Win the Top Pick?

The NHL regular season winds down, and teams at the bottom of the standings have their eyes set on the future: the 2025 NHL Draft Lottery. This annual event determines which franchise will land the coveted first overall pick, a selection that could change a team’s trajectory for years to come. With highly anticipated prospects on the horizon, the stakes have never been higher.

The lottery format remains unchanged, with the teams that finish lowest in the standings getting the best odds of securing the top pick. The franchise that finishes dead last in the league holds the highest chance, but nothing is guaranteed with the lottery system in place. Even a team finishing a few spots higher could still leapfrog into the No. 1 spot.

2025 NHL Draft Lottery Format

The NHL Draft Lottery determines the order of selection for the teams that did not qualify for the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The format remains similar to previous years, with a few key rules:

1. Two Draws to Determine the Top Picks

• The lottery consists of two separate draws to determine the first and second overall picks.
• The remaining non-playoff teams are then slotted in based on their regular-season standings.

2. Lottery Odds Based on Standings

• Teams that finished the regular season with the fewest points have the best chance of winning the lottery.
• The odds are weighted so the team with the worst record has the highest probability of securing the top pick.

3. Maximum Jump and Drop Rules

• A team cannot move up more than 10 spots if it wins a lottery draw.
• This means only the bottom 11 teams have a chance at the No. 1 overall pick.
• The team finishing last in the standings is guaranteed no lower than the third overall pick.

4. Limit on Lottery Wins

• A team cannot win the lottery more than twice in a five-year span to ensure fairness and prevent repeated dominance in high draft positions.

5. Remaining Picks

• After the first two selections are determined, the rest of the teams are placed in order based on their regular-season standings.

The NHL Draft Lottery odds are set, with the San Jose Sharks leading the pack. Holding a 25.5% chance at securing the first overall pick, the Sharks are followed by the Chicago Blackhawks at 13.5% and the Nashville Predators at 11.5%. Only the bottom 11 teams are eligible for the top pick due to lottery rules limiting upward movement to 10 spots.​

Expected Odds for the 2025 NHL Draft Lottery

The top five teams and their respective odds for the No. 1 pick are:​

1. San Jose Sharks – 25.5%​
2. Chicago Blackhawks – 13.5%​
3. Nashville Predators – 11.5%​
4. Boston Bruins – 9.5%​
5. Seattle Kraken – 8.5%​

The 2025 draft class features top prospects like defenseman Matthew Schaefer (Erie Otters), center Michael Misa (Saginaw Spirit), and center James Hagens (Boston College). The NHL Draft Lottery date is yet to be announced, but the draft is scheduled for June 27–28, 2025, at L.A. Live’s Peacock Theater.

With a weighted system favoring the teams with the worst records, the lottery remains a high-stakes event that can dramatically impact a franchise’s future. Whether it’s a rebuilding team looking for a cornerstone player or a surprise winner moving up the ranks, the draft lottery never fails to bring excitement.

Image Credit: Stan Szeto-Imagn Images