Qarabağ
CSKA Sofia
>Europa League · 2nd Qualifying RoundQarabağ vs CSKA Sofia: Prediction and Odds, Europa League, 23/07/2026
Qarabağ welcome CSKA Sofia to the Bakı Olimpiya Stadionu on 23 July for the Europa League second qualifying round first leg. The Azerbaijani side, priced at 1.46, carry serious European pedigree and a ruthless attacking edge into this tie. For CSKA Sofia, returning to continental football after a two-year absence, the challenge is considerable.
Projected final score: 2-0
Qarabağ are the clear favourites here, priced at 1.46, and their European credentials back that up: a 6-0 aggregate dismantling of Vestri with zero goals conceded underlines a side in sharp continental shape. CSKA Sofia, meanwhile, arrive with goalkeeper Lapoukhov and midfielder Ebong both doubtful over visa complications, a disruption that already cost them in the Derry City away leg.
A tight, controlled 2-0 feels right given both sides’ recent defensive contexts. Qarabağ have kept back-to-back European clean sheets and CSKA Sofia managed just 1.5 goals per game against Derry. With key visitors absent and Qarabağ’s home structure solid, N/A reflects the likelihood that Sofia struggle to find the net in Baku.
Match Analysis
Qarabağ enter as clear favorites at 1.46, backed by a flawless European campaign this season: a 6-0 aggregate demolition of Vestri with zero goals conceded, showcasing both attacking firepower and defensive solidity at Bakı Olimpiya Stadionu.
- 0 goals conceded across 2 Europa League matches in 2026/27, a 100% clean sheet rate.
- 6-0 aggregate win over Vestri confirms dominant European form entering this tie.
- Elvin Jafarguliyev returns to the squad, bolstering a largely intact and experienced group.
- Bakı Olimpiya Stadionu has hosted Champions League and Europa League group stage football previously.
CSKA Sofia face a steep challenge at 6.25, returning to European competition after a two-year absence. Their scrappy 5-3 aggregate win over Derry City exposed defensive vulnerabilities, and key doubts over Lapoukhov and Ebong due to visa issues compound their problems.
- 3 goals conceded in 2 qualifying matches, a 0% clean sheet rate so far this campaign.
- Lapoukhov (GK) and Ebong (MF) both doubtful with visa issues, repeating the Derry away-leg problem.
- UEFA disciplinary proceedings following crowd disturbances add psychological distraction to the squad.
Key point: With both defenses tested in qualifying and CSKA’s absences likely to open space, the both-teams-to-score angle at N/A offers a complementary alternative to the straight home win.
Statistics and Head-to-Head
Form & Statistics: Qarabağ vs CSKA Sofia
Qarabağ
Recent form
Season statistics (5)
CSKA Sofia
Recent form
Season statistics (2)
Probabilities & Odds: Qarabağ vs CSKA Sofia
Source : StakeMatch Information
Lineups: Qarabağ vs CSKA Sofia
Qarabağ
Starters
- 1 Magomedaliyev
- 2 Dani Bolt
- 3 B. Hüseynov
- 4 Silva
- 5 Jafarguliyev
- 6 Janković
- 7 Pedro Bicalho
- 8 Mouaddib
- 9 Kashchuk
- 10 Sawo
- 11 Zoubir
Absent
- Camilo Duran (Transfer to Celtic (left training camp))
CSKA Sofia
Starters
- 1 Evtimov
- 2 Ivanov
- 3 Pastor
- 4 Rodriguez
- 5 Martino
- 6 Sensi
- 7 Jordão
- 8 Godoy
- 9 Panayotov
- 10 Brahimi
- 11 Pittas
Absent
- Isaac Solet (Cruciate ligament injury (long-term, reported Nov 2024))
Low confidence
Both lineups carry a speculated tag here, drawn from recent match reports rather than official confirmation, so treat the shapes with some caution. That said, a 4-3-3 versus 4-2-3-1 contest is the expected picture, with Qarabağ looking to press high on home turf in Baku.
For the visitors, Brahimi operating behind the lone striker gives CSKA Sofia a creative pivot to build around, while Qarabağ’s wide trio will need to stay disciplined against a double pivot that can quickly transition. A tight, tactical qualifying tie looks the likeliest outcome.
Final thoughts on the predictions for Qarabağ vs CSKA Sofia
Qarabağ’s six-goal demolition of Vestri, a watertight defensive record in this campaign, and the comfort of home advantage at the Bakı Olimpiya Stadionu make the home win at 1.46 the standout selection. CSKA Sofia’s visa complications, off-field disciplinary issues, and a two-year absence from European football all work against them. Back Qarabağ to take a commanding first-leg lead.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the main prediction for Qarabağ vs CSKA Sofia?
The main pick is a Qarabağ home win at 1.46, driven by their ruthless European form: a 6-0 aggregate demolition of Vestri with zero goals conceded, against a CSKA Sofia side that shipped 1.5 goals per match even in their narrow win over Derry City.
What is the highest odd for Qarabağ to win?
The best available home-win price is 1.46. Bettors seeking safer coverage can explore the double chance pairing Qarabağ with the draw, described in words as backing the hosts not to lose, which reduces exposure while still leaning on Qarabağ’s commanding European form.
Will there be more or less than 2.5 goals in this match?
Qarabağ average 3.0 goals scored per home Europa League match this campaign, and CSKA Sofia conceded 1.5 per game against Derry City. That combination points firmly towards goals, making Over 2.5 at N/A the logical lean for this first-leg encounter.
When and where is Qarabağ vs CSKA Sofia played?
The match kicks off on 23 July 2026 at 04:00 IST (midnight UTC). The venue is the Bakı Olimpiya Stadionu in Baku, Azerbaijan, where Qarabağ enjoy formidable home support in European competition.
Can CSKA Sofia pull off an upset against Qarabağ?
An upset is possible but genuinely difficult. CSKA Sofia are priced at 6.25, reflecting roughly a one-in-five chance. Goalkeeper Lapoukhov and midfielder Ebong remain doubtful due to visa issues, the same problem that hampered them against Derry, and UEFA disciplinary proceedings add further distraction to their camp.
Which alternative market offers the best value?
Both Teams to Score: No at N/A offers solid value here. Qarabağ kept a clean sheet across both legs against Vestri, and a depleted, distracted CSKA Sofia attack looks unlikely to break that defensive discipline, making a one-sided shutout a realistic outcome.
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