Motherwell
HJK
>Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying RoundMotherwell vs HJK: Prediction and Odds, Europa Conference League, 13/08/2026
Fir Park hosts a Europa Conference League third qualifying round decider on 13 August as Motherwell, priced at 1.63, welcome HJK Helsinki with the tie locked at 1-1. The stakes could not be higher: a place in the play-off round against Freiburg awaits the winner, and Motherwell are chasing a historic first season with two European ties won.
Projected final score: 1-1
Motherwell's home fortress is the defining factor here. Their record of 11 clean sheets in 15 home matches and just 0.95 goals conceded per game makes them extremely difficult to beat at Fir Park, and with the tie level at 1-1, a draw suits them. Priced as clear favourites at 1.63, they carry genuine structural advantage despite a depleted squad.
Both sides carry attacking intent but defensive solidity limits the total. HJK's BTTS rate of only 37% and Motherwell's compact backline point toward a low-scoring affair. With 1.96 reflecting the tight nature of this tie, a two-goal game feels the most probable outcome, with Pukki capable of threatening but Motherwell's defensive shape likely holding firm.
Match Analysis
Motherwell enter this second leg as clear favourites at 1.63, backed by an outstanding home defensive record at Fir Park and an unbeaten run under manager Alfred Johansson. The 1-1 aggregate scoreline keeps the Steelmen firmly in control of their European destiny.
- 11 clean sheets in their last 15 home matches, conceding just 0.95 goals per game on average.
- Unbeaten in 5 games under Alfred Johansson, including a 5-0 aggregate win in the previous qualifying round.
- Lukas Fadinger has scored 3 goals in 5 games, providing a credible and consistent attacking threat.
- HJK conceded 23 goals in 19 Veikkausliiga matches (1.21 per game), leaving them exposed to Motherwell's attack.
HJK arrive at Fir Park priced at 4.20, facing a hostile crowd and a Motherwell side built to protect its home record. Despite Teemu Pukki's first-leg goal and manager Rantanen's attacking mandate, the Finns must overturn a tie that structurally favours the hosts.
- HJK's BTTS rate of only 37% suggests they frequently fail to contribute to open, high-scoring matches.
- Despite 5 shots on target in the first leg, HJK could not secure a lead, exposing their finishing inefficiency.
- Two key absentees, including David Ezeh, reduce HJK's squad options for a crucial away leg.
Key point: With both defences capable of staying organised, the double chance covering Motherwell home or draw pairs well with backing 1.96, given Fir Park's historically low-scoring home environment.
Statistics and Head-to-Head
Form & Statistics: Motherwell vs HJK
Motherwell
Recent form
Season statistics (3)
HJK
Recent form
Season statistics (3)
Motherwell vs HJK: Head-to-Head
Average statistics (recent meetings)
Probabilities & Odds: Motherwell vs HJK
Source : StakeMatch Information
Lineups: Motherwell vs HJK
Motherwell
Starters
- 1 Alex Paulsen
- 2 Tom Sparrow
- 3 Jamie Knight-Lebel
- 4 Martin Moormann
- 5 Emmanuel Longelo
- 6 Lukas Fadinger
- 7 Oscar Priestman
- 8 Willy Vogt
- 9 Matty Booth
- 10 Ibrahim Said
- 11 Tawanda Maswanhise
Bench
- Alex Lowry
- Regan Charles-Cook
- Mikey Booth
- Olly Whyte
- Luca Ross
Absent
- Aston Oxborough (injury)
- R. Callachan (injury)
- Johnny Koutroumbis (Calf injury)
- Jordan McGhee (Hamstring injury)
- Stephen O'Donnell (Knee injury)
- Callum Hendry (Knee injury)
- Apostolos Stamatelopoulos (Calf injury)
- Paul McGinn (Knee injury)
- Dylan Williams (injury)
HJK
Starters
- 1 Dejan Markovic
- 2 Miska Ylitolva
- 3 Ville Tikkanen
- 4 Till Cissokho
- 5 Kaius Simojoki
- 6 Lucas Lingman
- 7 Mouhamed Gueye
- 8 Martin Kirilov
- 9 Santeri Haarala
- 10 Teemu Pukki
- 11 Alfie Cicale
Bench
- Mitja Haapanen
- Amara Nallo
- Emil Leveälahti
- Jere Kallinen
- Liam Möller
- Mads Borchers
- Leo Lappalainen
Absent
- David Ezeh (absentee)
- Eemil Toivonen (absentee)
Low confidence
Both sides line up in a 4-3-3 mirror formation, setting the stage for a tactically even contest at Fir Park. HJK's XI carries the stronger sourcing confidence, while Motherwell's selection is speculated from multiple outlets, so a late change or two from the home dugout cannot be ruled out.
Teemu Pukki is the name that will draw most attention up front for the Finnish visitors, his experience at this level a clear asset. For Motherwell, Tawanda Maswanhise on the opposite flank offers pace and directness that could stretch HJK's defensive shape in the early exchanges.
Final thoughts on the predictions for Motherwell vs HJK
Motherwell's fortress record at Fir Park, combined with the tactical pressure on HJK to chase the game away from home, makes the double chance 1X the standout selection. The home side's defensive solidity and Alfred Johansson's unbeaten start provide a reliable foundation. Back Motherwell to avoid defeat, with the home win available at 1.63 and the draw at 3.55. Odds correct at time of publication.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the main prediction for Motherwell vs HJK?
The main pick is Home or Draw (1X), with Motherwell priced as clear favourites at 1.63, reflecting their exceptional home defensive record of 11 clean sheets in 15 matches at Fir Park. That fortress-like form is the single most decisive factor in this Europa Conference League qualifier.
What is the highest odd for Motherwell to win?
The best available price for a straight Motherwell win is 1.63. For bettors seeking safer coverage, a double chance backing Motherwell or the draw protects you against a narrow HJK victory while still returning a profit if the Steelmen hold firm at Fir Park.
Will there be more or less than 2.5 goals in this match?
The lean here is Under 2.5 goals at 1.96. Motherwell have conceded an average of just 0.95 goals per home game across their last 15 matches, and the first leg produced only a 1-1 scoreline, suggesting both sides prioritise defensive solidity over open, expansive football.
When and where is Motherwell vs HJK played?
The match kicks off at 19:30 BST (local time) on 13 August 2026 at Fir Park, Motherwell, Scotland. It is the second leg of the Europa Conference League Third Qualifying Round, with the aggregate score level at 1-1.
Can HJK pull off an upset against Motherwell?
An HJK upset is possible but difficult. The Finns are priced as clear outsiders at 4.20, and while Teemu Pukki's threat is genuine and manager Johansson has explicitly ruled out a defensive approach, HJK managed only five shots on target in the first leg, suggesting their attacking output may not be sufficient on Scottish soil.
Which alternative market offers the best value?
The Under 2.5 goals market at 1.96 offers solid value as an alternative. Motherwell's home defensive record is among the stingiest in this qualifying round, and with both managers mindful of a tight aggregate tie, a cautious, low-scoring second leg is the most logical outcome.
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