Larne
Tre Fiori
>Champions League · 1st Qualifying RoundLarne vs Tre Fiori: Prediction and Odds, Champions League, 14/07/2026
Larne welcome Tre Fiori to Windsor Park on 14 July 2026 for the second leg of their Champions League first qualifying round tie, carrying a slender 1-0 aggregate advantage. The Northern Irish champions, priced at 1.17 for the outright win, have a genuine opportunity to make history by progressing past this stage for the first time.
Projected final score: 1-0
Larne enter this second leg with a 1-0 aggregate cushion and every incentive to defend it. Their defensive record of 0.68 goals conceded per match, backed by five clean sheets in their last five competitive outings, makes them a formidable proposition at 1.17 against a part-time San Marino side who created virtually nothing in the first leg.
A low-scoring affair is the most logical outcome here. Tre Fiori lack the attacking quality to breach Larne's disciplined backline, and Larne's priority is protection over adventure. With N/A reflecting the cautious tactical setup from both sides, a tight 1-0 home win mirrors the first-leg dynamic almost exactly.
Match Analysis
Larne enter this second leg priced at 1.17 and holding a 1-0 aggregate advantage from the first leg in San Marino. The Northern Irish champions have won seven of their last nine competitive matches and concede at a rate of just 0.68 goals per game.
- 1-0 aggregate lead means Larne need only avoid a two-goal defeat to progress.
- Five clean sheets in their last five competitive matches, including the first leg.
- 0.68 goals conceded per match underlines elite defensive discipline at this level.
- 7 wins in last 9 competitive games confirms strong overall form and squad depth.
Tre Fiori arrive at Inver Park priced at 15.00, needing to score twice away from home against one of the tightest defenses in the qualifying rounds. The part-time San Marino side failed to create meaningful chances in the first leg and recently lost the Coppa Titano final.
- Zero meaningful chances created in the first leg against this same Larne backline.
- Part-time status creates a stark physical and tactical gap against professional opposition.
- Only twice in history have Tre Fiori progressed past European qualifying rounds.
Key point: With both sides expected to be cautious and Tre Fiori lacking attacking threat, the home or draw double chance aligns well with N/A as a complementary low-scoring angle.
Statistics and Head-to-Head
Form & Statistics: Larne vs Tre Fiori
Larne
Recent form
Season statistics (1)
Tre Fiori
Recent form
Season statistics (1)
Larne vs Tre Fiori: Head-to-Head
Average statistics (recent meetings)
Probabilities & Odds: Larne vs Tre Fiori
Source : StakeMatch Information
Lineups: Larne vs Tre Fiori
Larne
Starters
- 1 Rohan Ferguson
- 2 Tomas Cosgrove
- 3 Matt Ridley
- 4 Dan Bent
- 5 Sean Graham
- 6 Chris Gallagher
- 7 Ronan Doherty
- 8 Jordan McEneff
- 9 Montel Gibson
- 10 Matthew Lusty
Bench
- Benjamin Magee
- Kevin O'Hara
- James Simpson
- L. Wallace
- C. McKendry
- M. Randall
- L. Millar
- D. Sloan
Absent
- Conor McKendry (suspended)
- Paul O'Neill (suspended)
- Cian Bolger (injury)
- Aaron Donnelly (suspended)
Tre Fiori
Starters
- 1 Michele Nardi
- 2 Tom Syku
- 3 Simone Rea
- 4 Alex Sirri
- 5 Alessandro D'Addario
- 6 Sami
- 7 Federico Benedettini
- 8 Federico Dolcini
- 9 Luca Censoni
- 10 Tommaso Bernardi
- 11 Matteo Prandelli
Bench
- Federico Pesaresi
- Guilio Ponticelli
- Nico Manara
Medium confidence
A 5-3-2 versus 4-4-2 contest shapes this first qualifying round tie at Inver Park, with Larne's wing-backs expected to be central to their attacking intent. Jordan McEneff operating in the midfield three will be key to Larne controlling tempo against a compact Tre Fiori block.
The San Marino side arrive in a conventional flat four, relying on their double pivot and wide midfielders to stay organised. Both lineups carry probable status, each drawn from first-leg selections, so the tactical picture is reasonably settled ahead of what promises to be a tight, attritional European qualifier.
Final thoughts on the predictions for Larne vs Tre Fiori
Larne's 1-0 aggregate lead, home advantage at Windsor Park, and superior squad quality make the double chance 1X the standout selection here. The Northern Irish champions have been defensively resolute throughout their recent run, and Tre Fiori's part-time squad lacks the firepower to overturn even a narrow deficit on the road. Back Larne not to lose, covered by the home win at 1.17. Odds correct at time of publication.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the main prediction for Larne vs Tre Fiori?
The home or draw double chance is the standout pick, backed by Larne's 1.17 price reflecting their commanding aggregate lead; the single most decisive factor is their exceptional defensive discipline, conceding just 0.68 goals per match on average, making a two-goal Tre Fiori comeback almost inconceivable.
What is the highest odd for Larne to win?
The best available price on a Larne victory is 1.17, which is already quite short given their dominance. Punters seeking slightly safer coverage can back the home-or-draw double chance in words, essentially insuring against a narrow Tre Fiori equaliser while still keeping Larne firmly onside.
Will there be more or less than 2.5 goals in this match?
Under 2.5 goals is the logical lean here, reflected in the N/A line. Larne have kept five clean sheets across their last four domestic outings plus the first leg, and Tre Fiori failed to register a meaningful chance in that opener, pointing firmly toward a low-scoring, controlled affair.
When and where is Larne vs Tre Fiori played?
The match kicks off at 19:00 BST (local Belfast time) on 14 July 2026, hosted at Windsor Park in Belfast, Northern Ireland, which serves as Larne's neutral-ground venue for this Champions League qualifying second leg.
Can Tre Fiori pull off an upset against Larne?
Realistically, an upset is extremely unlikely. Tre Fiori, a part-time San Marino outfit, are priced at 15.00 for good reason: they must score twice away from home against a side that has conceded fewer than one goal per game all season. Their failure to create chances in the first leg makes this task even more daunting.
Which alternative market offers the best value?
No Both Teams to Score, available at N/A, offers solid value given Larne's five recent clean sheets and Tre Fiori's inability to threaten in the first leg. With Larne defending a lead and the San Marino side lacking firepower, a Tre Fiori goal looks highly improbable in this second leg.
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