Anderlecht
PAOK
>Europa League · 3rd Qualifying RoundAnderlecht vs PAOK: Prediction and Odds, Europa League, 13/08/2026
Lotto Park hosts Anderlecht vs PAOK on 13 August 2026 in the Europa League 3rd Qualifying Round first leg, with a playoff berth on the line. The Belgian hosts, priced at 2.90, welcome a PAOK side brimming with confidence after dispatching Dynamo Kyiv in the previous round. A fascinating first competitive meeting awaits.
Projected final score: 2-1
Anderlecht take this as the home side and carry a structural edge: PAOK arrive with a WWLL recent run and a depleted squad missing key attackers, while Anderlecht, despite integrating new signings, have home advantage and a motivated Vítor Bruno setup. At 2.90, backing the hosts to edge a tight first leg makes sense.
Both squads carry attacking intent but defensive vulnerabilities from absentees on each side point toward a low-scoring, competitive affair. A 3-goal total feels right, with PAOK likely grabbing one on the counter. The 1.66 angle is supported by Anderlecht's leaky away record and PAOK's habit of finding the net even in defeat.
Match Analysis
PAOK enter this first leg as the clear home favourite at 2.90, backed by a European home unbeaten streak stretching back to the 2020-21 campaign and a confident WWDDW run across their last five matches.
- Unbeaten at home in European qualifiers since 2020-21, a streak spanning multiple campaigns.
- 2.5 goals per match in UEL qualifying this season, outpacing Anderlecht's 2.0 average.
- WWDDW in last five matches, including a two-legged dispatch of Dynamo Kyiv in the previous round.
- Four new starters in Anderlecht's ranks still finding cohesion under a transitional new manager.
Anderlecht arrive in Thessaloniki at 2.08, burdened by a four-match winless streak in away European qualifiers and a squad mid-integration under new coach Vítor Bruno, who must replace the departed Thorgan Hazard's 15-goal contribution.
- Four away European qualifier matches without a win, exposing chronic road fragility.
- Six first-team players sidelined, including Sardella and Maamar, thinning defensive cover significantly.
- Four summer signings debuting simultaneously, limiting tactical cohesion at a critical European stage.
Key point: With both squads heavily depleted and PAOK's qualifying games averaging compact, tense affairs, the under 2.5 goals market at 1.86 offers a compelling complementary angle.
Statistics and Head-to-Head
Form & Statistics: Anderlecht vs PAOK
Anderlecht
Recent form
Season statistics (3)
PAOK
Recent form
Season statistics (5)
Anderlecht vs PAOK: Head-to-Head
Average statistics (recent meetings)
Probabilities & Odds: Anderlecht vs PAOK
Source : StakeMatch Information
Lineups: Anderlecht vs PAOK
Anderlecht
Starters
- 1 Jiří Pavlenka
- 2 Jonjoe Kenny
- 3 Pantelis Hatzidiakos
- 4 Giannis Michailidis
- 5 Jonathan Gómez
- 6 Baptiste Santamaria
- 7 Christos Zafeiris
- 8 Giannis Konstantelias
- 9 Andrija Živković
- 10 Anestis Mythou
- 11 Taison
Bench
- Alex Jeremejeff
Absent
- Ali Maamar (suspended)
- Cedric Hatenboer (injury)
- Amadou Diawara (suspended)
- Lucas Hey (injury)
- Ilay Camara (injury)
- Killian Sardella (injury)
- Kiril Despodov (toe injury)
- Soualiho Meite (hip issue)
- Fedor Chalov (meniscus injury)
PAOK
Starters
- 1 Colin Coosemans
- 2 Leo Petrot
- 3 Giulian Biancone
- 4 Ali Maamar
- 5 Ludwig Augustinsson
- 6 Enric Llansana
- 7 Marco Kana
- 8 Joshua-Williame Nga Kana
- 9 Lukas Ambros
- 10 Danylo Sikan
- 11 Mihajlo Cvetkovic
Bench
- Tristan Degreef
- Jayden Onia Seke
Absent
- Kiril Despodov (injury)
- Anestis Mythou (injury)
- Dimitrios Kottas (injury)
- Taha Ali (injury)
- Soualiho Meïté (injury)
- Fedor Chalov (injury)
- Giannis Konstantelias (injury)
Medium confidence
Both sides line up in a mirrored 4-2-3-1, which sets the stage for a tactically tight contest in Brussels. The battle in the double-pivot zones will be central, with Anderlecht's Santamaria and Zafeiris tasked with disrupting PAOK's Llansana and Marco Kana before they can feed the visitors' attacking line.
For Anderlecht, Taison operating as the lone striker gives them a mobile focal point, while PAOK's Sikan leads the line with Cvetkovic and Ambros providing width. PAOK's probable XI draws from a slightly broader pool of sources, giving it marginally more confidence, though both lineups remain probable rather than confirmed.
Final thoughts on the predictions for Anderlecht vs PAOK
Anderlecht's home advantage at Lotto Park, combined with PAOK's struggles on the road in European qualifiers, tilts this first leg in favour of the Belgian side. Vítor Bruno's men have the attacking tools through Danylo Sikan to exploit a PAOK defence that can be vulnerable away from Thessaloniki. The home win at 2.90 represents the strongest selection for this opener. Questo articolo è a scopo informativo e non costituisce una raccomandazione di scommessa.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the main prediction for Anderlecht vs PAOK?
PAOK are favoured to win at 2.08, with their unbeaten European qualifier home record since 2020-21 and a settled squad under Alessio Lisci proving the single most decisive factor against an Anderlecht side still finding its feet under new manager Vítor Bruno.
What is the highest odd for Anderlecht to win?
The best available price for an Anderlecht home win is listed at 2.90. For bettors seeking safer coverage, a double chance backing Anderlecht or the draw spreads the risk across two outcomes, though it naturally compresses the return compared to the straight home win.
Will there be more or less than 2.5 goals in this match?
The lean here is Over 2.5 goals at 1.86. PAOK are averaging 2.5 goals per match in Europa League qualifying this season, while Anderlecht are contributing 2.0 per game, making a three-goal match a realistic and well-supported expectation for this first leg.
When and where is Anderlecht vs PAOK played?
The match kicks off at 19:30 local time (Brussels, CEST) on 13 August 2026, hosted at Lotto Park in Anderlecht, Belgium.
Can PAOK pull off an upset against Anderlecht?
PAOK are not the underdog here; they enter as favourites at 2.08 and carry genuine momentum, having eliminated Dynamo Kyiv in the previous round. Anderlecht's four-match winless run in away European qualifiers and their transitional squad make a PAOK victory the most realistic outcome, not an upset at all.
Which alternative market offers the best value?
The standout alternative market is Both Teams to Score: Yes at 1.66. Both sides carry attacking intent in European qualifying, and with Anderlecht integrating new forwards eager to impress and PAOK's Konstantelias a consistent goal threat, a blank sheet from either side looks unlikely.
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