Qarabağ
Dynamo Kyiv
>Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying RoundQarabağ vs Dynamo Kyiv: Prediction and Odds, Europa Conference League, 13/08/2026
Qarabağ welcome Dynamo Kyiv to the Tofiq Bəhramov adına Respublika stadionu on 13 August for a Europa Conference League third qualifying round second leg, trailing 1-0 on aggregate. The hosts, priced at 1.62, must overturn that deficit in Baku's sweltering conditions, where their recent record offers genuine hope of progression.
Projected final score: 2-1
Qarabağ's home fortress at Tofiq Bəhramov has been virtually impenetrable recently, conceding just 0.25 goals per game across their last four home fixtures. Dynamo Kyiv arrive depleted, missing first-choice goalkeeper Neshcheret and multiple defenders, with backup Surkis between the sticks. Priced at 1.62, the hosts carry genuine momentum to overturn their one-goal deficit.
A three-goal total feels right given Qarabağ's attacking obligation and Dynamo's structural vulnerabilities at the back. However, Kyiv's counter-attacking threat on the break, combined with Qarabağ's own absentees including suspended Makreckis, limits the likelihood of a high-scoring affair. 1.68 reflects both sides having realistic routes to goal in a tightly contested second leg.
Match Analysis
Qarabağ enter this second leg at Tofiq Bəhramov as the clear home favorite at 1.62, backed by a dominant 61% possession display in Kyiv and a formidable home record that makes them genuine contenders to overturn the 1-0 deficit.
- 75% home win rate in recent matches, with 2.25 goals scored per game at Tofiq Bəhramov.
- 3 clean sheets in last 4 home fixtures, conceding only 0.25 goals per game.
- Dynamo Kyiv missing 4 defenders including Popov and Vivcharenko, severely weakening their backline.
- Dynamo's backup goalkeeper Surkis starts, a meaningful drop in quality between the sticks.
Dynamo Kyiv arrive in Baku holding a 1-0 aggregate lead but facing enormous structural challenges. Priced at 4.20, they carry a depleted squad of eight absentees, zero European away goals in their last two fixtures, and internal criticism labeling their defensive shape 'tactical chaos'.
- Dynamo Kyiv scored 0 goals in their last two European away matches.
- Coach Kostiuk's heavy rotation in the weekend league outing raises serious cohesion concerns.
- 8 players sidelined, including first-choice goalkeeper Neshcheret and key defensive starters.
Key point: With Dynamo's fragile defense and Qarabağ's obligation to attack, backing both teams to score offers a compelling alternative angle at 1.68.
Statistics and Head-to-Head
Form & Statistics: Qarabağ vs Dynamo Kyiv
Qarabağ
Recent form
Season statistics (5)
Dynamo Kyiv
Recent form
Season statistics (5)
Qarabağ vs Dynamo Kyiv: Head-to-Head
Average statistics (recent meetings)
Probabilities & Odds: Qarabağ vs Dynamo Kyiv
Source : StakeMatch Information
Lineups: Qarabağ vs Dynamo Kyiv
Qarabağ
Starters
- 1 Mateusz Kochalski
- 2 Bruno Langa
- 3 Matheus Silva
- 4 Bence Várkonyi
- 5 Elvin Cəfərquliyev
- 6 Pedro Bicalho
- 7 Marko Janković
- 8 Jaly Mouaddib
- 9 Abdellah Zoubir
- 10 Oleksiy Kashchuk
- 11 Renaldo Cephas
Bench
- Shahrudin Magomedaliyev
- Martin Zlomislić
- Bahlul Mustafazadə
- Badavi Huseynov
- Johnny Montiel
- Kady Borges
- Samuel Lobato
- H. Cəbrayılzadə
- A. Bashirov
- Musa Qurbanlı
Absent
- Cebrail Makreckis (suspended)
- Cebrails Makreckis (Suspension (red card in first leg))
- Zakaria Savich (Serious muscle injury (expected out for 8 weeks))
Dynamo Kyiv
Starters
- 1 Vyacheslav Surkis
- 2 Oleksandr Tymchyk
- 3 Tomasz Kędziora
- 4 Kostiantyn Bilovar
- 5 Oleksiy Sych
- 6 Volodymyr Brazhko
- 7 Vladyslav Kabaiev
- 8 Andriy Yarmolenko
- 9 Vitaliy Buialskyi
- 10 Nazar Voloshyn
- 11 Matviy Ponomarenko
Bench
- Illia Olkhovyi
- A. Thiare
- Vladyslav Dubinchak
- Taras Mykhavko
- Oleksandr Pikhalyonok
- Mykola Shaparenko
- Vladyslav Rubchynskyi
- Eric Guerrero
- Bohdan Redushko
- P. Mounguengue
Absent
- Mykola Mykhaylenko (injury)
- Ruslan Neshcheret (injury)
- Denys Popov (injury)
- Vladyslav Zakharchenko (injury)
- Benito (suspended)
- Kostyantyn Vivcharenko (injury)
- Roman Salenko (injury)
- Reshat Ramadani (injury)
- Kostiantyn Vivcharenko (Knee injury)
- Vitaliy Lobko (Surgery)
Medium confidence
Both sides line up in a matching 4-2-3-1 formation, setting the stage for a tactically tight Europa Conference League qualifier. The midfield battle will be central, with each team deploying a double pivot to control the tempo and protect the back four.
Andriy Yarmolenko brings considerable European pedigree to Dynamo Kyiv's attacking line, while Qarabağ will look to Abdellah Zoubir and Renaldo Cephas to carry the home side's creative and attacking threat in what promises to be a closely contested tie in Baku.
Final thoughts on the predictions for Qarabağ vs Dynamo Kyiv
Qarabağ's fortress home record, Dynamo Kyiv's well-documented defensive fragility, and the Baku conditions all point in one direction. The home side at 1.62 represents the strongest value on this card. Expect Qarabağ to overturn the deficit and advance. Odds correct at time of publication.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the main prediction for Qarabağ vs Dynamo Kyiv?
Qarabağ to win at 1.62 is the primary pick, backed by a 62% confidence rating. The single most decisive factor is Dynamo Kyiv's severely depleted squad, with eight players sidelined and backup goalkeeper Surkis starting, leaving their defensive structure dangerously fragile against a Qarabağ side that concedes just 0.25 goals per home game.
What is the highest odd for Qarabağ to win?
The best available price for a Qarabağ home win is 1.62. For bettors seeking safer coverage, a double chance backing Qarabağ or a draw, described in words rather than a separate market token, effectively reduces risk while still leaning on the home side's strong fortress form at Tofiq Bəhramov.
Will there be more or less than 2.5 goals in this match?
Given Qarabağ's need to score at least once to overturn the deficit and Dynamo Kyiv's structural vulnerabilities at the back, an open, attacking match is likely. Qarabağ averaged 2.25 goals per home game recently, making 1.79 the recommended selection for the goals market in this second leg.
When and where is Qarabağ vs Dynamo Kyiv played?
The match kicks off at 20:00 local Baku time (UTC+4) on 13 August 2026, at the Tofiq Bəhramov adına Respublika stadionu in Baku, Azerbaijan. This is a Europa Conference League third qualifying round second leg fixture.
Can Dynamo Kyiv pull off an upset against Qarabağ?
Dynamo Kyiv arrive holding a 1-0 advantage, which is a meaningful cushion, but the 4.20 price reflects genuine difficulty. With eight absentees, a backup goalkeeper, and zero goals scored in their last two European away fixtures, a Kyiv victory in Baku is possible but far from straightforward against a well-organised home side.
Which alternative market offers the best value?
The Both Teams to Score: Yes market at 1.68 offers solid value here. Qarabağ must score to stay alive in the tie, while Dynamo Kyiv's away threat, even in weakened form, remains credible given their 1-0 first-leg lead. Both sides have clear incentives to find the net, making this a logical alternative selection.
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