Hammarby
Raków Częstochowa
>Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying RoundHammarby vs Raków Częstochowa: Prediction and Odds, Europa Conference League, 13/08/2026
After a goalless first leg in Poland, the Europa Conference League 3rd Qualifying Round returns to Tele2 Arena on 13 August 2026 for a decisive second leg. Hammarby, priced at 1.61, welcome Raków Częstochowa knowing qualification to the play-offs hinges on this single evening in Stockholm. Neither side can afford a misstep.
Projected final score: 1-0
Hammarby's 90% home unbeaten rate at Tele2 Arena makes them a formidable proposition in this second leg, and the bookmakers reflect that with 1.61 pricing them as clear favourites. With Fran Tudor doubtful after picking up a hamstring strain in the first leg, Raków's defensive organisation is slightly undermined, giving the hosts a genuine edge to nick a narrow winner.
The 0-0 first leg underlines how cautious both sides are likely to be, with Raków prioritising defensive solidity to protect the tie. Hammarby concede just 0.60 goals per game at home, and a low-scoring affair feels inevitable. 2.04 suits this context well, with a single home goal likely proving decisive across the 90 minutes.
Match Analysis
Hammarby enter this second leg as clear favourites at 1.61, backed by a remarkable 90% home unbeaten rate across their last 40 matches at Tele2 Arena. A 3-0 Allsvenskan demolition of Hacken last Sunday confirms they arrive in sharp form.
- 90% unbeaten rate in last 40 home matches at Tele2 Arena across all competitions.
- 0.60 goals conceded per game at home, making Hammarby extremely difficult to breach on their own turf.
- 3-0 win vs Hacken last Sunday provides strong momentum and match sharpness heading into this decisive tie.
- 7 wins in last 10 home matches; Raków's key defender Fran Tudor is doubtful with a hamstring strain.
Raków Częstochowa face a steep challenge at 4.50, arriving without a weekend fixture that raises match-rhythm concerns. However, their tactical discipline was evident in the goalless first leg, where they matched Hammarby with identical possession and five shots on target each.
- No weekend fixture played; match-rhythm deficit could hinder Raków's intensity in a high-stakes second leg.
- Fran Tudor doubtful with a hamstring strain, weakening Raków's defensive structure at a critical moment.
- Away record in European qualifiers shows vulnerability against organised home sides with strong defensive shape.
Key point: With both sides tactically cautious after a 0-0 first leg and Hammarby conceding under one goal per home game, the double chance covering home or draw aligns closely with 1.61 as the anchor of this prediction.
Statistics and Head-to-Head
Form & Statistics: Hammarby vs Raków Częstochowa
Hammarby
Recent form
Season statistics (3)
Raków Częstochowa
Recent form
Season statistics (3)
Hammarby vs Raków Częstochowa: Head-to-Head
Average statistics (recent meetings)
Probabilities & Odds: Hammarby vs Raków Częstochowa
Source : StakeMatch Information
Lineups: Hammarby vs Raków Częstochowa
Hammarby
Starters
- 1 Warner Hahn
- 2 Hampus Skoglund
- 3 Ibrahima Fofana
- 4 Victor Eriksson
- 5 Frederik Winther
- 6 Markus Karlsson
- 7 Tesfaldet Tekie
- 8 Frank Junior Adjei
- 9 Nahir Besara
- 10 Noah Persson
- 11 Victor Lind
Absent
- Sourou Koné (injury)
Raków Częstochowa
Starters
- 1 Kacper Trelowski
- 2 Debohi Diedounne
- 3 Bogdan Racovitan
- 4 Stratos Svarnas
- 5 Jean Carlos
- 6 Vladyslav Kochergin
- 7 Oskar Repka
- 8 Michael Ameyaw
- 9 Mahir Emreli
- 10 Patryk Makuch
- 11 Marko Bulat
Absent
- Fran Tudor (injury)
Medium confidence
A 4-2-3-1 against a 3-4-3 sets up a fascinating structural contest at Tele2 Arena. Hammarby's double pivot will need to be disciplined against Raków's wide wing-backs, who are likely to push high and stretch the Swedish side's defensive shape across both flanks.
Nahir Besara is the creative fulcrum in the home midfield, while Mahir Emreli leads Raków's attacking trio and will be the most dangerous outlet on the counter. Both lineups carry probable status from the same source, so the confidence level is broadly equal across both sides.
Final thoughts on the predictions for Hammarby vs Raków Częstochowa
Hammarby's fortress record at Tele2 Arena, combined with the tactical leverage of a goalless first leg, makes the double chance 1X the standout selection here. The home side's defensive solidity and recent attacking form against Hacken tilt the balance firmly in their favour. Back Hammarby to avoid defeat at 1.61, with a draw at 3.55 providing additional cover. Odds correct at time of publication.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the main prediction for Hammarby vs Raków Częstochowa?
The main pick is Home or Draw (1X), with Hammarby priced as clear favourites at 1.61; the single most decisive factor is their 90% unbeaten rate across 40 home matches at Tele2 Arena, which makes them extraordinarily difficult to beat on their own turf in this second-leg decider.
What is the highest odd for Hammarby to win?
The best available odd for a straight Hammarby win is 1.61. For bettors who prefer a safer cushion, covering both a home win and the draw via a double chance is a prudent option, ensuring you remain in profit even if Raków manage to hold out for ninety minutes.
Will there be more or less than 2.5 goals in this match?
The lean here is firmly towards Under 2.5 goals at 2.04. The first leg finished 0-0, and Hammarby concede just 0.60 goals per game at home; both sides showed in Poland that defensive discipline takes priority, making a low-scoring second leg the most logical outcome.
When and where is Hammarby vs Raków Częstochowa played?
The match kicks off at 19:00 local Stockholm time (CEST) on 13 August 2026 at the Tele2 Arena in Stockholm, Sweden, which serves as Hammarby's home ground for this Europa Conference League third qualifying round second leg.
Can Raków Częstochowa pull off an upset against Hammarby?
An upset is possible but genuinely difficult at 4.50. Raków's away goals average of 2.50 per game is encouraging, yet that figure came largely against weaker opposition. With Hammarby in fine domestic form after a 3-0 win over Hacken and boasting a fortress-like home record, Raków face a steep climb to advance.
Which alternative market offers the best value?
Both Teams to Score: No at 2.00 represents solid alternative value. Hammarby's miserly home defensive record of 0.60 goals conceded per game, combined with the cautious, tactical nature of the first leg, strongly suggests at least one side will be kept off the scoresheet over these ninety minutes.
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