{"id":652959,"date":"2026-03-13T09:30:22","date_gmt":"2026-03-13T08:30:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/theplayoffs.news\/en\/?p=652959"},"modified":"2026-03-13T09:30:27","modified_gmt":"2026-03-13T08:30:27","slug":"ufc-vegas-114-vitor-petrino-vs-steven-asplund-predictions-odds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/theplayoffs.news\/en\/ufc-vegas-114-vitor-petrino-vs-steven-asplund-predictions-odds\/","title":{"rendered":"UFC Vegas 114: Vitor Petrino vs Steven Asplund \u2013 Predictions, Odds, Best Bets & How To Watch"},"content":{"rendered":"

UFC Vegas 114’s main card opens with a heavyweight clash between Brazilian contender Vitor Petrino and American prospect Steven Asplund. This 3-round bout pits the well-rounded 28-year-old grappler against the massive 27-year-old power puncher at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada.<\/p>

Petrino opens as a -250<\/a> favorite, with Asplund at +200<\/a>. This heavyweight opener has genuine finish potential in both directions. Here’s how we’re betting UFC Vegas 114: Petrino vs Asplund, including our UFC predictions<\/a>, best bet, key props and an expert final verdict.<\/p>

Mini FIght Info Strip<\/h3>

Event:<\/strong> UFC Vegas 114 <\/p>

Weight class:<\/strong> UFC Heavyweight bout <\/p>

Fight length:<\/strong> 3-round prelim card fight <\/p>

Date & time:<\/strong> March 14, 2026 – Prelim card 07:00 p.m. ET, walk time ~09:40 p.m. ET <\/p>

Venue:<\/strong> UFC APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada<\/p>

Best Bet Card<\/strong><\/h3>

Best Bet: <\/strong>Petrino by Submission (+270) <\/p>

Book: <\/strong>Best price at FanDuel<\/a><\/p>

Our best bet for this heavyweight main card opener is Vitor Petrino by Submission at +270<\/a>. Below, we’ll break down the matchup and key props.<\/p>

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Vitor Petrino vs Steven Asplund Odds<\/strong><\/h2>

Here are the latest odds from top sportsbooks.<\/p>

Market<\/strong><\/td>BetMGM<\/strong><\/td>FanDuel<\/strong><\/td>Best Odds<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Moneyline<\/strong><\/td>Petrino -250 \/ Asplund +200<\/td>-240 \/ +190<\/td>Asplund +200 <\/a>(BetMGM)<\/td><\/tr>
Fight Goes Distance<\/strong><\/td>+165<\/td>+168<\/td>+168<\/a> (FD)<\/td><\/tr>
Fight Doesn’t Go Distance<\/strong><\/td>-220<\/td>-215<\/td>-215<\/a> (FD)<\/td><\/tr>
Total Rounds O\/U 1.5<\/strong><\/td>O-180 \/ U+135<\/td>O-156 \/ U+122<\/td>U +135 <\/a>(BetMGM)<\/td><\/tr>
Petrino by Submission<\/strong><\/td>+225<\/td>+270<\/td>+270<\/a> (FD)<\/td><\/tr>
Petrino by KO\/TKO<\/strong><\/td>+275<\/td>+280<\/td>+280<\/a> (FD)<\/td><\/tr>
Petrino by Decision<\/strong><\/td>+300<\/td>+350<\/td>+350<\/a> (FD)<\/td><\/tr>
Asplund by KO\/TKO<\/strong><\/td>+400<\/td>+470<\/td>+470 <\/a>(FD)<\/td><\/tr>
Asplund by Decision<\/strong><\/td>+550<\/td>+490<\/td>+550<\/a> (BetMGM)<\/td><\/tr>
Asplund by Submission<\/strong><\/td>+2500<\/td>+2200<\/td>+2500 <\/a>(BetMGM)<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>

Odds updated: March 13, 2026 – 03:00 AM ET. Lines may move before fight night, especially after weigh-ins.<\/em><\/p>

Tale of the Tape – Key Stats to Know<\/strong><\/h2>

Before we get into the matchup, here’s a Tale of the Tape for Petrino vs Asplund.<\/p>

Tale of the Tape<\/strong><\/td>Vitor Petrino<\/strong><\/td>Steven Asplund<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Record<\/strong><\/td>13-2-0<\/td>7-1-0<\/td><\/tr>
Age<\/strong><\/td>28<\/td>27<\/td><\/tr>
Weight<\/strong><\/td>225 lbs.<\/td>260 lbs.<\/td><\/tr>
Height<\/strong><\/td>6’2″<\/td>6’5″<\/td><\/tr>
Reach<\/strong><\/td>77″<\/td>78″<\/td><\/tr>
Stance<\/strong><\/td>Orthodox<\/td>Orthodox<\/td><\/tr>
Sig. Strikes Landed<\/strong><\/td>2.75<\/td>19.93<\/td><\/tr>
Striking Accuracy<\/strong><\/td>46%<\/td>58%<\/td><\/tr>
Strikes Absorbed<\/strong><\/td>2.48<\/td>7.49<\/td><\/tr>
Striking Defense<\/strong><\/td>47%<\/td>57%<\/td><\/tr>
Takedowns<\/strong><\/td>3.04<\/td>0.00<\/td><\/tr>
Takedown Accuracy<\/strong><\/td>51%<\/td>0%<\/td><\/tr>
Takedown Defense<\/strong><\/td>79%<\/td>100%<\/td><\/tr>
Submission Avg.<\/strong><\/td>0.8<\/td>0.0<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>

The standout number in this entire matchup is Asplund’s 19.93 significant strikes landed per minute. This is a genuinely extraordinary figure that dwarfs anything seen in the heavyweight division. However, Petrino’s 3.04 takedowns per fight at 51% accuracy against Asplund’s 0% takedown defense creates a glaring pathway to a finish on the ground. <\/p>

Fighter Breakdown – Vitor Petrino Analysis<\/strong><\/h2>

Petrino comes in with a 13-2-0 record as a well-rounded heavyweight with genuine finishing ability. The 28 year old Brazilian is a legitimate grappler, especially dangerous against an opponent with zero takedown defense.<\/p>

Strengths:<\/strong> Elite takedown volume at 3.04 per fight with 51% accuracy. Strong 0.8 submission average. Absorbs only 2.48 significant strikes per minute. Excellent 79% takedown defense. Solid 15-fight professional experience against a 7-1 opponent.<\/p>

Weaknesses:<\/strong> Only 47% striking defense on the feet. Low striking volume at 2.75 per minute. If the fight stays standing, Asplund’s output and accuracy overwhelm him quickly. Two losses on his record show he can be beaten when his grappling is neutralized.<\/p>

Betting Angles:<\/strong> Petrino by Submission (+270<\/a>) is our primary play. His -250<\/a> moneyline is steep but justified given the grappling mismatch.<\/p>

Fighter Breakdown – Steven Asplund Analysis<\/strong><\/h2>

Asplund comes in with a 7-1-0 record and one of the most eye-catching statistical profiles you will ever see. The 27 year old American’s lone loss came by decision, and he has never been taken down professionally.<\/p>

Strengths:<\/strong> Astonishing 19.93 significant strikes landed per minute. Excellent 58% striking accuracy at that extraordinary volume. Strong 57% striking defense on the feet. Perfect 100% takedown defense in his professional career. Three-inch height advantage at 6’5″.<\/p>

Weaknesses:<\/strong> Zero takedown offense whatsoever. No submission offense to speak of. Absorbs 7.49 significant strikes per minute. His 7-1 record is limited in terms of UFC-caliber opposition. If Petrino gets him down, Asplund has no answers.<\/p>

Betting Angles:<\/strong> Asplund’s +200 <\/a>moneyline offers real value if his striking completely overwhelms Petrino before a takedown lands. Asplund by KO\/TKO (+470<\/a>) is the only realistic finishing path for the American.<\/p>

Best Bets For Vitor Petrino vs. Steven Asplund<\/strong><\/h2>

Best Bet: Petrino by Submission (+270<\/a>)<\/strong><\/h3>

Petrino attempts 3.04 takedowns per fight at 51% accuracy. Asplund has 0% takedown defense across his entire professional career. Once Petrino gets the fight to the mat, which the numbers suggest he will, Asplund has no ground game whatsoever. <\/p>

A 0.0 submission average against a 0.8 average opponent with elite takedown accuracy is a nightmare scenario. We project this outcome closer to 40%, making +270<\/a> outstanding value.<\/p>

Value Prop: Fight Does NOT Go Distance (-215<\/a>)<\/strong><\/h3>

Both finishing paths are well represented here. Either Petrino gets a takedown and works a submission, or Asplund lands one of his extraordinary volume of strikes and gets a stoppage. Neither fighter profiles as a decision grinder. At -215<\/a> (implied 68.3%), this is solid juice for a fight that screams finish.<\/p>

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Longshot Flier: Asplund by KO\/TKO (+470<\/a>)<\/strong><\/h3>

Small stake only. Asplund’s striking output is so extraordinary that even one clean exchange before Petrino can shoot could end the fight. Petrino absorbs 2.48 strikes per minute against normal opponents and Asplund is anything but normal at 19.93. <\/p>

If Asplund catches Petrino coming in for a takedown attempt, the size and power advantage could produce a spectacular upset. At +470<\/a> (implied 17.5%), a small stake is warranted. Keep stakes at 0.5 units maximum.<\/p>

Prediction – Final Verdict<\/strong><\/h2>

Official Pick: Vitor Petrino by Submission<\/strong><\/p>

We are backing Petrino to use his grappling to neutralize Asplund’s extraordinary striking and secure a submission finish. We see Asplund making round one terrifying with his 19.93 strikes per minute. Petrino will need to weather early volume to get the fight where he wants it.<\/p>

But Petrino’s 51% takedown accuracy against an opponent with zero takedown defense is simply too significant to ignore. Once the fight hits the mat, Asplund’s complete absence of ground game gives Petrino free reign to work his 0.8 submission average without resistance.<\/p>

This fight likely ends in round two once Petrino weathers the early storm and begins controlling distance. Asplund’s striking numbers are genuinely remarkable but have yet to be tested against a grappler of Petrino’s quality. <\/p>

How to Bet UFC Vegas 114: Tips for This Card<\/strong><\/h2>

Card Tips:<\/strong><\/h3>
    \n
  • Asplund’s 19.93 significant strikes per minute is the most extraordinary statistical outlier on the entire card, but means nothing if Petrino gets him down.<\/li>\n<\/ul>
      \n
    • Josh Emmett vs Kevin Vallejos headlines in a 5-round featherweight main event with a 17-year age gap.<\/li>\n<\/ul>
        \n
      • Oumar Sy vs Ion Cuțelaba offers the best standalone knockout value at light heavyweight.<\/li>\n<\/ul>

        UFC Vegas 114 Fight Card<\/strong><\/h2>

        Main Card (10:00 p.m. ET – Paramount+)<\/strong><\/p>

        Josh Emmett vs Kevin Vallejos — Featherweight bout, 5 rounds<\/p>

        Amanda Lemos vs Gillian Robertson — Women’s Strawweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

        Ion Cuțelaba vs Oumar Sy — Light Heavyweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

        Andre Fili vs Jose Miguel Delgado — Featherweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

        Marwan Rahiki vs Harry Hardwick — Featherweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

        Vitor Petrino vs Steven Asplund — Heavyweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

        Prelims (07:00 p.m. ET – Paramount+)<\/strong><\/p>

        Charles Johnson vs Bruno Gustavo da Silva — Flyweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

        Brad Tavares vs Eryk Anders — Middleweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

        Chris Curtis vs Myktybek Orolbai — Welterweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

        Bolaji Oki vs Manoel Sousa — Lightweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

        Luan Lacerda vs Hecher Sosa — Bantamweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

        Beatriz Mesquita vs Montserrat Rendon — Women’s Bantamweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

        Elijah Smith vs You Su-young — Bantamweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

        Piera Rodriguez vs Sam Hughes — Women’s Strawweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

        Odds current as of March 13, 2026.<\/em><\/p>

        (Image Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck – Imagn Images)<\/strong><\/p>

        <\/p>\n

        \n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        UFC Vegas 114’s main card opens with a heavyweight clash between Brazilian contender Vitor Petrino and American prospect Steven Asplund. This 3-round bout pits the well-rounded 28-year-old grappler against the massive 27-year-old power puncher at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. Petrino opens as a -250 favorite, with Asplund at +200. This heavyweight opener […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":652965,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"page-betting.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_mux_skip_reasons":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[1783,4513],"tags":[11423,11412,8492],"class_list":["post-652959","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mma","category-ufc-predictions","tag-steven-asplund","tag-ufc-vegas-114","tag-vitor-petrino"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nUFC Vegas 114: Vitor Petrino vs Steven Asplund – Predictions, Odds, Best Bets & How To Watch - The Playoffs<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Get to know our UFC Vegas 114 Vitor Petrino vs Steven Asplund fight prediction, picks, props, analysis and best bets.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/theplayoffs.news\/en\/ufc-vegas-114-vitor-petrino-vs-steven-asplund-predictions-odds\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"UFC Vegas 114: Vitor Petrino vs Steven Asplund – Predictions, Odds, Best Bets & How To Watch - 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