{"id":651338,"date":"2026-02-20T18:06:50","date_gmt":"2026-02-20T17:06:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/theplayoffs.news\/en\/?p=651338"},"modified":"2026-02-20T18:06:56","modified_gmt":"2026-02-20T17:06:56","slug":"ufc-houston-jordan-leavitt-vs-yadier-del-valle-predictions-odds-best-bets-how-to-watch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/theplayoffs.news\/en\/ufc-houston-jordan-leavitt-vs-yadier-del-valle-predictions-odds-best-bets-how-to-watch\/","title":{"rendered":"UFC Houston: Jordan Leavitt vs. Yadier del Valle \u2013 Predictions, Odds, Best Bets & How To Watch"},"content":{"rendered":"

UFC Houston’s featherweight prelim features veteran Jordan Leavitt making his 145-pound debut against undefeated Cuban prospect Yadier del Valle in a compelling grappler’s showcase. This 3-round bout pits Leavitt’s unorthodox submission game and UFC experience against del Valle’s explosive finishing instincts and unblemished 10-0 record.<\/p>

Del Valle opens as a -425<\/a> favorite, with Leavitt at +320<\/a> as the underdog. Here’s how we’re betting UFC Houston: Leavitt vs. del Valle, including our UFC predictions<\/a>, best bet, key props and an expert final verdict.<\/p>

Mini Fight Info Strip<\/strong><\/h3>

Event:<\/strong> UFC Houston<\/p>

Weight class:<\/strong> UFC Featherweight bout<\/p>

Fight length:<\/strong> 3-round prelim bout<\/p>

Date & time:<\/strong> February 21, 2026 – Prelims 05:00 p.m. ET, walk time ~05:35 p.m. ET<\/p>

Venue:<\/strong> Toyota Center, Houston, Texas<\/p>

Best Bet Card<\/strong><\/h3>

Best Bet: <\/strong>del Valle by Submission (+280<\/a>)<\/p>

Book:<\/strong> Best price at BetMGM\/FanDuel<\/p>

Our best bet is del Valle by submission at +280<\/a>. Below, we’ll break down the matchup and key props.<\/p>

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Jordan Leavitt vs. Yadier del Valle Odds<\/strong><\/h2>

Here are the latest odds from top sportsbooks.<\/p>

Market<\/strong><\/td>BetMGM<\/strong><\/td>FanDuel<\/strong><\/td>Best Odds<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Moneyline<\/td>Leavitt +320 \/ del Valle -425<\/td>+310 \/ -420<\/td>Leavitt +320<\/a> (BetMGM)<\/td><\/tr>
Fight Goes Distance<\/td>+175<\/td>+176<\/td>+176<\/a> (FD)<\/td><\/tr>
Fight Doesn’t Go Distance<\/td>-250<\/td>-230<\/td>-230<\/a> (FD)<\/td><\/tr>
Total Rounds O\/U 1.5<\/td>Over -145 \/ Under +112<\/td>Over -142 \/ Under +112<\/td>Under +112 <\/a>(BetMGM\/FD)<\/td><\/tr>
del Valle by KO\/TKO<\/td>+150<\/td>+170<\/td>+170<\/a> (FD)<\/td><\/tr>
del Valle by Submission<\/td>+280<\/td>+280<\/td>+280<\/a> (BetMGM\/FD)<\/td><\/tr>
del Valle by Decision<\/td>+300<\/td>+330<\/td>+330<\/a> (FD)<\/td><\/tr>
Leavitt by KO\/TKO<\/td>+2200<\/td>+2200<\/td>+2200 <\/a>(BetMGM\/FD)<\/td><\/tr>
Leavitt by Submission<\/td>+1000<\/td>+1000<\/td>+1000<\/a> (BetMGM\/FD)<\/td><\/tr>
Leavitt by Decision<\/td>+650<\/td>+550<\/td>+550<\/a> (FD)<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>

Odds updated: February 20, 2026 – 10:30 AM ET. Lines may move before fight night, especially after weigh-ins or late injury news.<\/em><\/p>

Tale of the Tape – Key Stats to Know<\/strong><\/h2>

Before we get into the matchup, here’s a Tale of the Tape for Leavitt vs. del Valle.<\/p>

Tale Of The Tape<\/strong><\/td>Jordan Leavitt<\/strong><\/td>Yadier del Valle<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Record<\/strong><\/td>12-3<\/td>10-0<\/td><\/tr>
Age<\/strong><\/td>30<\/td>29<\/td><\/tr>
Height<\/strong><\/td>5’9″<\/td>5’9″<\/td><\/tr>
Reach<\/strong><\/td>71″<\/td>69″<\/td><\/tr>
Stance<\/strong><\/td>Southpaw<\/td>Southpaw<\/td><\/tr>
Sig. Strikes Landed<\/strong><\/td>2.49<\/td>6.25<\/td><\/tr>
Striking Accuracy<\/strong><\/td>61%<\/td>67%<\/td><\/tr>
Strikes Absorbed<\/strong><\/td>1.79<\/td>2.87<\/td><\/tr>
Striking Defense<\/strong><\/td>57%<\/td>52%<\/td><\/tr>
Takedowns<\/strong><\/td>2.92<\/td>2.08<\/td><\/tr>
Takedown Accuracy<\/strong><\/td>30%<\/td>42%<\/td><\/tr>
Takedown Defense<\/strong><\/td>30%<\/td>75%<\/td><\/tr>
Submission Avg.<\/strong><\/td>1.3<\/td>3.5<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>

Identical height and stance make this a pure stylistic battle. Del Valle’s 3.5 submission average vs. Leavitt’s 1.3, and 75% vs. 30% takedown defense, are the defining numbers.<\/p>

Fighter Breakdown – Jordan Leavitt Analysis<\/strong><\/h2>

Leavitt enters 12-3, returning to featherweight after his entire UFC run at lightweight. He most recently earned a performance bonus submitting Kurt Holobaugh with an anaconda choke in 99 seconds.<\/p>

Strengths:<\/strong> Unorthodox submission game featuring inverted triangles and anaconda chokes that confuse opponents. UFC experience (5-3) against elite grapplers including Claudio Puelles, Chase Hooper, and Paddy Pimblett. Slight reach advantage at 71″. Moving down should improve and cardio.<\/p>

Weaknesses:<\/strong> 30% takedown defense is a glaring liability. Pulling guard exposes him to top pressure and ground-and-pound. Has alternated wins and losses over his last five bouts.<\/p>

Betting Angles:<\/strong> Leavitt by Decision (+550<\/a>) is his most realistic path if he survives del Valle’s aggression. Leavitt by Submission (+1000<\/a>) is a lottery ticket as del Valle’s 75% takedown defense makes it hard to hold the positions Leavitt needs.<\/p>

Fighter Breakdown – Yadier del Valle Analysis<\/strong><\/h2>

Del Valle carries a perfect 10-0 record. He went 2-0 in his UFC debut year with first-round rear-naked choke finishes over Connor Matthews and Isaac Dulgarian.<\/p>

Strengths:<\/strong> Elite 3.5 submission average with 42% takedown accuracy and 75% takedown defense. Three straight finishes including two UFC stoppages. Heavy top pressure and ground-and-pound create multiple submission entries. Fighting in his adopted hometown adds crowd energy.<\/p>

Weaknesses:<\/strong> Leavitt’s chaotic scramble style is unlike anything del Valle has faced. A 52% striking defense could be tested early. Competition level remains modest by UFC standards.<\/p>

Betting Angles:<\/strong> Del Valle by Submission (+280<\/a>) is our primary value play given his elite grappling metrics. Del Valle by KO\/TKO (+170<\/a>) offers solid value if top pressure produces a stoppage before a clean submission finish.<\/p>

Best Bets For Jordan Leavitt vs. Yadier del Valle<\/strong><\/h2>

Best Bet: del Valle by Submission (+280<\/a>)<\/strong><\/h3>

Del Valle’s 3.5 submission average and 75% takedown defense mean once he’s on top, he stays there. Both UFC finishes came by first-round rear-naked choke. At +280<\/a> (implied 26.3%), we project this closer to 40%.<\/p>

Value Prop: Fight Doesn’t Go Distance (-230<\/a>)<\/strong><\/h3>

Del Valle has finished all three UFC fights and Leavitt owns four UFC finishes himself. Three full rounds feels unlikely given both men’s finishing tendencies. At -230<\/a> (implied 69.7%), this feels like solid value alongside the best bet.<\/p>

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Longshot Flier: Leavitt by Submission (+1000<\/a>)<\/strong><\/h3>

Small stake only. If del Valle dives into a scramble overconfidently, Leavitt can wrap up a choke from seemingly impossible positions. At +1000<\/a> (implied 9.1%), keep stakes at 0.5 units maximum.<\/p>

Prediction – Final Verdict<\/strong><\/h2>

Official Pick: <\/strong>Yadier del Valle by Submission<\/p>

Del Valle should establish top control early, using ground-and-pound to open submission lanes. Leavitt will pull guard and hunt scrambles, but del Valle’s positional pressure should neutralize the chaos. <\/p>

We are predicting del Valle winning via rear-naked choke or arm triangle. This will be a statement performance for him and announce him to the featherweight division. <\/p>

How to Bet UFC Houston: Tips for This Card<\/strong><\/h2>

Card Tips:<\/strong><\/h3>