{"id":649627,"date":"2026-02-05T06:52:04","date_gmt":"2026-02-05T05:52:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/theplayoffs.news\/en\/?p=649627"},"modified":"2026-02-05T06:52:09","modified_gmt":"2026-02-05T05:52:09","slug":"ufc-vegas-113-mario-bautista-vs-vinicius-oliveira-predictions-odds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/theplayoffs.news\/en\/ufc-vegas-113-mario-bautista-vs-vinicius-oliveira-predictions-odds\/","title":{"rendered":"UFC Vegas 113: Mario Bautista vs Vinicius Oliveira \u2013 Predictions, Odds, Best Bets & How To Watch"},"content":{"rendered":"

UFC Vegas 113’s main event features a bantamweight clash between Mario Bautista and Vinicius Oliveira. This five round headliner pits the American volume striker against the Brazilian finisher in a technical battle at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.<\/p>

Bautista opens as a -170<\/a> favorite, with Oliveira at +140<\/a> as the underdog. This main event could determine the next in line for the title eliminator.<\/p>

Here’s how we’re betting UFC Vegas 113: Bautista vs Oliveira, including our UFC predictions<\/a>, best bet, key props and an expert final verdict.<\/p>

Mini Fight Info Strip<\/strong><\/h2>

Event:<\/strong> UFC Vegas 113 – UFC Apex<\/p>

Weight class:<\/strong> UFC Bantamweight bout<\/p>

Fight length:<\/strong> 5-round main event<\/p>

Date & time:<\/strong> Saturday, February 7, 2026 – Main card: 09:00 p.m. ET, walk time ~11:30 p.m. ET<\/p>

Venue:<\/strong> UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada<\/p>

Best Bet Card<\/strong><\/h2>

Best Bet:<\/strong> Fight Goes the Distance (+140)<\/p>

Book:<\/strong> Best price at FanDuel<\/a><\/p>

Our best bet for this bantamweight main event is the fight goes the distance at +140<\/a>. Below, we’ll break down the matchup and key props.<\/p>

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Mario Bautista vs Vinicius Oliveira Odds<\/strong><\/h2>

Here are the latest odds from top sportsbooks.<\/p>

Market<\/strong><\/td>BetMGM<\/strong><\/td>FanDuel<\/strong><\/td>Best Odds<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Moneyline<\/strong><\/td>Bautista -170 \/ Oliveira +140<\/td>-174 \/ +136<\/td>Oliveira +140 <\/a>(BetMGM)<\/td><\/tr>
Fight Goes Distance<\/strong><\/td>+130<\/td>+140<\/td>+140<\/a> (FD)<\/td><\/tr>
Fight Doesn’t Go Distance<\/strong><\/td>-185<\/td>-180<\/td>-180 <\/a>(FD)<\/td><\/tr>
Total Rounds O\/U 3.5<\/strong><\/td>NA<\/td>Over -124 \/ Under -102<\/td>Over -124<\/a> (FD)<\/td><\/tr>
Bautista by KO\/TKO<\/strong><\/td>+450<\/td>+480<\/td>+480<\/a> (FD)<\/td><\/tr>
Bautista by Submission<\/strong><\/td>+300<\/td>+370<\/td>+370 <\/a>(FD)<\/td><\/tr>
Bautista by Decision<\/strong><\/td>+200<\/td>+250<\/td>+250<\/a> (FD)<\/td><\/tr>
Oliveira by KO\/TKO<\/strong><\/td>+225<\/td>+280<\/td>+280<\/a> (FD)<\/td><\/tr>
Oliveira by Submission<\/strong><\/td>+1800<\/td>+1600<\/td>+1800<\/a> (BetMGM)<\/td><\/tr>
Oliveira by Decision<\/strong><\/td>+650<\/td>+550<\/td>+650<\/a> (BetMGM)<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>

Odds updated:<\/strong> February 5, 2026 – 12:20 AM ET. Lines may move before fight night, especially after weigh-ins or late injury news.<\/p>

Tale of the Tape – Key Stats to Know<\/strong><\/h2>

Before we get into the matchup, here’s a Tale of the Tape for Bautista vs Oliveira.<\/p>

Tale Of The Tape<\/strong><\/td>Mario Bautista<\/strong><\/td>Vinicius Oliveira<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Record<\/strong><\/td>16-3<\/td>23-3<\/td><\/tr>
Age<\/strong><\/td>31<\/td>30<\/td><\/tr>
Height<\/strong><\/td>5’9″<\/td>5’9″<\/td><\/tr>
Reach<\/strong><\/td>69″<\/td>70″<\/td><\/tr>
Stance<\/strong><\/td>Switch<\/td>Switch<\/td><\/tr>
Sig. Strikes Landed<\/strong><\/td>5.58<\/td>5.28<\/td><\/tr>
Striking Accuracy<\/strong><\/td>48%<\/td>43%<\/td><\/tr>
Takedowns<\/strong><\/td>1.48<\/td>1.67<\/td><\/tr>
Takedown Defense<\/strong><\/td>54%<\/td>80%<\/td><\/tr>
Submission Avg.<\/strong><\/td>0.0<\/td>0.2<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>

Bautista holds advantages in striking volume and accuracy. Oliveira counters with superior striking defense, significantly lower damage absorption, better takedown accuracy, and elite takedown defense. The switch-stance vs switch-stance matchup creates unpredictable exchanges.<\/p>

Fighter Breakdown – Mario Bautista Analysis<\/strong><\/h2>

Bautista comes in with a 16-3 record bringing elite volume striking to the bantamweight division. The 31 year old is a well-rounded threat with switch-stance and relentless pace.<\/p>

Strengths:<\/strong> Elite striking volume (5.58 per minute) overwhelms opponents. Superior striking accuracy. Switch stance creates unpredictable angles. Solid wrestling with 1.48 takedowns per fight. Experience in five-round fights. Well-rounded skillset.<\/p>

Weaknesses:<\/strong> High damage absorption (4.19 per minute). Poor takedown defense (54%) against elite wrestlers. Low takedown accuracy (32%) despite attempts. No submission threat (0.0 attempts). <\/p>

Betting Angles:<\/strong> Bautista’s -170 <\/a>moneyline offers minimal value. Bautista by Decision (+250<\/a>) is excellent value given his volume advantage over five rounds. Fight goes the distance (+140<\/a>) aligns with both fighters’ durability.<\/p>

Fighter Breakdown – Vinicius Oliveira Analysis<\/strong><\/h2>

Oliveira brings a 23-3 record with exceptional defensive metrics and finishing ability. The 30 year old Brazilian is a technical striker with elite takedown defense.<\/p>

Strengths:<\/strong> Exceptional damage avoidance. Elite takedown defense (80%). Superior striking defense (57%). Better takedown accuracy (50%). Extensive experience and switch stance versatility. Good Finishing ability.<\/p>

Weaknesses:<\/strong> Lower striking volume. Poor striking accuracy (43%). Limited submission game (0.2 attempts). Underdog against volume striker. Counter-striking approach yields lower scoring output.<\/p>

Betting Angles:<\/strong> Oliveira’s +140<\/a> moneyline offers value for his defensive excellence. Oliveira by KO\/TKO (+280<\/a>) provides value if counters accumulate damage.<\/p>

Best Bets For Mario Bautista vs Vinicius Oliveira<\/strong><\/h2>

Best Bet: Fight Goes the Distance (+140<\/a>)<\/strong><\/h3>

This five round main event between two technical switch-stance bantamweights should reach the judges. Oliveira’s exceptional defensive metrics — 57% striking defense and just 2.89 strikes absorbed per minute make him extremely difficult to finish. His elite 80% takedown defense neutralizes Bautista’s wrestling attempts. <\/p>

Meanwhile, Bautista’s durability and experience in five-rounders keep him safe from Oliveira’s finishing attempts. Submission threats are minimal (0.0 for Bautista, 0.2 for Oliveira). At +140 <\/a>(implied 41.7%), we project this goes the distance around 55-60%, offering excellent value.<\/p>

Value Prop: Bautista by Decision (+250<\/a>)<\/strong><\/h3>

Bautista’s superior striking volume and accuracy should accumulate points over five rounds despite Oliveira’s defensive skills. The American’s switch-stance versatility creates scoring opportunities, and his 1.48 takedowns per fight provide additional control time. <\/p>

Oliveira’s counter-striking approach yields lower volume, potentially losing rounds to judges favoring activity. Five rounds heavily favor Bautista’s cardio and output. At +250<\/a> (implied 28.6%), we project this outcome closer to 35%, offering solid value as the most likely result.<\/p>

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Longshot Flier: Oliveira by KO\/TKO (+280<\/a>)<\/strong><\/h3>

Small stake only. Oliveira’s finishing ability and Bautista’s high damage absorption (4.19 per minute) create knockout opportunities. If Oliveira’s counters land clean and accumulate damage over five rounds, a late stoppage becomes possible. <\/p>

Bautista’s poor 54% takedown defense could lead to ground-and-pound finishes if Oliveira’s wrestling breaks through. At +280<\/a> (implied 26.3%), this offers solid payout for the upset finish path. Keep stakes at 0.5 units maximum.<\/p>

Prediction – Final Verdict<\/strong><\/h2>

Official pick:<\/strong> Mario Bautista by Unanimous Decision <\/p>

We are backing Bautista to secure a clear unanimous decision victory, likely 49-46 on all scorecards. The American’s superior striking volume, accuracy, and five-round experience should prove decisive over 25 minutes.<\/p>

Bautista should win the rounds with sustained volume, using his switch-stance versatility to create angles and land combinations. Oliveira’s exceptional defensive metrics keep rounds competitive, but the judges should favor Bautista’s activity. Oliveira may steal a round or even two with effective counter-striking and cleaner damage, capitalizing on Bautista’s defensive lapses.<\/p>

But as the fight progresses into championship rounds, Bautista’s experience and cardio should overwhelm Oliveira’s counter-punching approach. The volume advantage becomes increasingly pronounced in rounds 4-5, securing the decision. This victory positions Bautista in the mix for the next title eliminator bout. .<\/p>

How to Bet UFC Vegas 113: Tips for This Card<\/strong><\/h2>

Beyond the bantamweight main event, UFC Vegas 113 offers several compelling matchups that create both opportunities and traps for bettors.<\/p>

Card Tips:<\/strong><\/p>

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  • Five-round cardio matters.<\/strong> Bautista’s volume approach becomes more effective over 25 minutes. Championship rounds favor high-output fighters.
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  • Defensive metrics predict decisions.<\/strong> Oliveira’s 2.89 strikes absorbed per minute and 57% defense strongly suggest survival to the final bell. Elite defense prevents finishes.
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  • Bautista’s 5.58 volume at 48% accuracy vs Oliveira’s 5.28 at 43% creates classic judging question. Activity typically wins main events.
    <\/li>\n<\/ul>

    UFC Vegas 113 Fight Card<\/strong><\/h2>

    Main Card (09:00 p.m. ET – Paramount+)<\/strong><\/p>

    Mario Bautista vs Vinicius Oliveira – Bantamweight bout, 5 rounds<\/p>

    Amir Albazi vs Kyoji Horiguchi – Flyweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

    Jailton Almeida vs Rizvan Kuniev – Heavyweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

    Michal Oleksiejczuk vs Marc-Andre Barriault – Middleweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

    Jean Matsumoto vs Farid Basharat – Bantamweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

    Dustin Jacoby vs Julius Walker – Light Heavyweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

    Prelims (6:00 p.m. ET – Paramount+)<\/strong><\/p>

    Alex Morono vs Daniil Donchenko – Welterweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

    Bruna Brasil vs Ketlen Souza – Women’s Strawweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

    Said Nurmagomedov vs Javid Basharat – Bantamweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

    Wang Cong vs Eduarda Moura – Women’s Flyweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

    Muin Gafurov vs Jakub Wiklacz – Bantamweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

    Klaudia Sygula vs Priscila Cachoeira – Women’s Bantamweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

    Odds current as of February 5, 2026.<\/em><\/p>

    (Image Credit: Vincent Carchietta – Imagn Images)<\/strong><\/p>\n

    \n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    UFC Vegas 113’s main event features a bantamweight clash between Mario Bautista and Vinicius Oliveira. This five round headliner pits the American volume striker against the Brazilian finisher in a technical battle at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. Bautista opens as a -170 favorite, with Oliveira at +140 as the underdog. This main […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":649843,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"page-betting.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_mux_skip_reasons":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[1783,4513],"tags":[6820,11145,3164],"class_list":["post-649627","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mma","category-ufc-predictions","tag-mario-bautista","tag-ufc-vegas-113","tag-vinicius-oliveira"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nUFC Vegas 113: Mario Bautista vs Vinicius Oliveira – Predictions, Odds, Best Bets & How To Watch - The Playoffs<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Our UFC Vegas 113 Mario Bautista vs Vinicius Oliveira prediction breaks down the latest odds, props and expert verdict.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/theplayoffs.news\/en\/ufc-vegas-113-mario-bautista-vs-vinicius-oliveira-predictions-odds\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"UFC Vegas 113: Mario Bautista vs Vinicius Oliveira – Predictions, Odds, Best Bets & How To Watch - 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