{"id":649250,"date":"2026-01-29T05:59:48","date_gmt":"2026-01-29T04:59:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/theplayoffs.news\/en\/?p=649250"},"modified":"2026-01-29T05:59:55","modified_gmt":"2026-01-29T04:59:55","slug":"ufc-325-alexander-volkanovski-vs-diego-lopes-2-predictions-odds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/theplayoffs.news\/en\/ufc-325-alexander-volkanovski-vs-diego-lopes-2-predictions-odds\/","title":{"rendered":"UFC 325: Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes 2 \u2013 Predictions, Odds, Best Bets & How To Watch"},"content":{"rendered":"

UFC 325 returns to Australia with a historic featherweight championship rematch featuring Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes. Volkanovski makes his first title defense on home soil and Lopes seeks redemption in this title rematch, This 5-round main event will be held at Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney.<\/p>

Volkanovski brings a 27-4 record with the recent decision win over Lopes marking his return to championship glory at age 37. Lopes enters with a 27-7 record including a second-round TKO of Jean Silva and previous wins over Brian Ortega and Sodiq Yusuff. Volkanovski is a -150<\/a> favorite with Lopes at +125 <\/a>as the underdog.<\/p>

Here’s how we’re betting UFC 325: Volkanovski vs Lopes, including our UFC predictions<\/a>, best bet, key props and an expert final verdict.<\/p>

Mini Fight Info Strip<\/strong><\/h3>

Event:<\/strong> UFC 325 – Qudos Bank Arena<\/p>

Weight class:<\/strong> UFC Featherweight Championship bout<\/p>

Fight length:<\/strong> 5-round main event<\/p>

Date & time:<\/strong> Saturday, Jan 31, 2026 – Main card 09:00 p.m. ET, walk time ~11:00 p.m. ET<\/p>

Venue:<\/strong> Qudos Bank Arena, Sydney, Australia<\/p>

Best Bet Card<\/strong><\/h3>

Best Bet:<\/strong> Volkanovski by Decision (+165)<\/p>

Book:<\/strong> Best price at FanDuel<\/a><\/p>

Our best bet for UFC 325 is Volkanovski by decision at +165<\/a>. Below, we’ll break down the matchup and key props.<\/p>

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Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes Odds<\/strong><\/h2>

Here are the latest odds from top sportsbooks.<\/p>

Market<\/strong><\/td>BetMGM<\/strong><\/td>FanDuel<\/strong><\/td>Best Odds<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Moneyline<\/strong><\/td>Volkanovski -150 \/ Lopes +125<\/td>Volkanovski -154 \/ Lopes +120<\/td>Volkanovski -150 <\/a>(BetMGM)<\/td><\/tr>
Fight Goes Distance<\/strong><\/td>+100<\/td>+106<\/td>+106 <\/a>(FD)<\/td><\/tr>
Fight Doesn’t Go Distance<\/strong><\/td>-140<\/td>-134<\/td>-134<\/a> (FD)<\/td><\/tr>
Total Rounds O\/U 4.5<\/strong><\/td>NA<\/td>Over -106 \/ Under -120<\/td>Over -106<\/a> (FD)<\/td><\/tr>
Volkanovski by KO\/TKO<\/strong><\/td>+300<\/td>+430<\/td>+430<\/a> (FD)<\/td><\/tr>
Volkanovski by Submission<\/strong><\/td>+1200<\/td>+1200<\/td>+1200<\/a> (BetMGM\/FD)<\/td><\/tr>
Volkanovski by Decision<\/strong><\/td>+150<\/td>+165<\/td>+165 <\/a>(FD)<\/td><\/tr>
Lopes by KO\/TKO<\/strong><\/td>+300<\/td>+320<\/td>+320<\/a> (FD)<\/td><\/tr>
Lopes by Submission<\/strong><\/td>+600<\/td>+600<\/td>+600<\/a> (BetMGM\/FD)<\/td><\/tr>
Lopes by Decision<\/strong><\/td>+650<\/td>+650<\/td>+650 <\/a>(BetMGM\/FD)<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>

Odds updated:<\/strong> January 27, 2026 – 7:30 AM ET. Lines may move before fight night, especially after weigh-ins or late injury news.<\/p>

Tale of the Tape – Key Stats to Know<\/strong><\/h2>

Before we get into the matchup, here’s a Tale of the Tape for Volkanovski vs Lopes.<\/p>

Tale Of The Tape<\/strong><\/td>Alexander Volkanovski<\/strong><\/td>Diego Lopes<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Record<\/strong><\/td>27-4<\/td>27-7<\/td><\/tr>
Age<\/strong><\/td>37<\/td>31<\/td><\/tr>
Height<\/strong><\/td>5’6″<\/td>5’11”<\/td><\/tr>
Reach<\/strong><\/td>71″<\/td>72″<\/td><\/tr>
Stance<\/strong><\/td>Orthodox<\/td>Orthodox<\/td><\/tr>
Sig. Strikes Landed<\/strong><\/td>6.18<\/td>4.10<\/td><\/tr>
Striking Accuracy<\/strong><\/td>56%<\/td>48%<\/td><\/tr>
Takedowns<\/strong><\/td>1.67<\/td>0.79<\/td><\/tr>
Takedown Defense<\/strong><\/td>70%<\/td>67%<\/td><\/tr>
Submission Avg.<\/strong><\/td>0.2<\/td>1.7<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>

Volkanovski holds massive advantages in striking volume and accuracy. Lopes counters with a 5-inch height advantage, dangerous submission game (1.7\/15 min), and youth at 31 years old. Both fighters are orthodox, creating a symmetrical striking matchup where Volk’s superior volume and accuracy should control the pace.<\/p>

Fighter Breakdown – Alexander Volkanovski Analysis<\/strong><\/h2>

Volkanovski comes in with a 27-4 record including his recent unanimous decision victory over Lopes at UFC 314. The 37 year old nicknamed “The Great” is a two-time UFC featherweight champion with the longest average fight time in division history.<\/p>

Strengths:<\/strong> Elite cardio and pace for 25 minutes. Exceptional striking volume (6.18\/min) and accuracy. Strong wrestling base (1.67 TD\/15min) from Greco-Roman background. Championship experience with 11-fight featherweight win streak (2018-2023). Fighting at home in Australia provides massive motivation and crowd support. Already defeated Lopes once, understanding his patterns and tendencies.<\/p>

Weaknesses:<\/strong> Age 37 with accumulated damage from wars. Height disadvantage (5 inches) creates reach problems. Coming off knockouts in two of last three losses shows potential chin deterioration. Short turnaround since April 2025 title win. Faces dangerous finisher with improved game plan.<\/p>

Betting Angles:<\/strong> Volkanovski by Decision (+165<\/a>) is our primary play given his volume-based style and Lopes’ durability. Volkanovski’s -150<\/a> moneyline offers minimal value. Fight goes the distance (+106<\/a>) appeals given both fighters’ recent decision trends.<\/p>

Fighter Breakdown – Diego Lopes Analysis<\/strong><\/h2>

Lopes brings a 27-7 record including recent wins over Jean Silva, Brian Ortega, and Dan Ige. The 31 year old is a 2nd-degree BJJ black belt and former LUX Fight League featherweight champion seeking redemption after his April loss to Volkanovski.<\/p>

Strengths:<\/strong> Dangerous finishing ability with 18 career finishes. Elite BJJ credentials and submission threat (1.7 attempts\/15min). Youth at 31 years old. Spectacular TKO of Jean Silva with spinning elbow shows evolved striking. Five-inch height advantage creates range problems for Volkanovski. Improved game plan after studying first fight tape.<\/p>

Weaknesses:<\/strong> Already lost to Volkanovski by unanimous decision (48-47, 49-46, 48-47) nine months ago. Lower striking volume and accuracy than elite featherweights. Poor takedown defense (67%) against elite wrestlers. First UFC title fight ended in loss. <\/p>

Betting Angles:<\/strong> Lopes’ +125<\/a> moneyline offers value for his finishing upside and improvements. Lopes by KO\/TKO (+320<\/a> ) is interesting given Volkanovski’s recent knockout losses. Lopes by Submission (+600<\/a>) represents a longshot path to upset victory.<\/p>

Best Bets For Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes<\/strong><\/h2>

Best Bet: Volkanovski by Decision (+165<\/a>)<\/strong><\/h3>

Volkanovski already defeated Lopes by decision 9 months ago, controlling the pace with superior volume and accuracy. The Australian’s cardio advantage becomes even more pronounced in a championship rematch where both fighters have studied tape. Lopes is extremely durable and his submission threat prevents Volkanovski from taking excessive risks on the ground. At +165 (implied 37.7%), we think this hits closer to 50-55%, offering excellent value as the most likely outcome.<\/p>

Value Prop: Fight Goes the Distance (+106<\/a>)<\/strong><\/h3>

Both fighters went the distance in their first meeting, and this rematch likely follows the same pattern. Volkanovski rarely finishes opponents via knockout (only 5 KO wins in 27 victories), while Lopes has never been knocked out in his career. The submission threat exists but Volkanovski’s wrestling credentials and cautiousness prevent major grappling risks. At +106 (implied 48.5%), we think this goes five rounds around 65% of the time, making it solid value.<\/p>

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Longshot Flier: Lopes by Submission (+600<\/a>)<\/strong><\/h3>

Small stake only. If Lopes finds success, it comes late when Volkanovski tires. The 37 year old champion could slow in championship rounds, creating submission opportunities for the elite BJJ black belt. Lopes has 8 career tap-out wins. Volkanovski has never been submitted but his 70% takedown defense could allow late scrambles. At 16-1, this offers massive payout for a specific but plausible scenario. Keep stakes at 0.25 units maximum.<\/p>

Prediction – Final Verdict<\/strong><\/h2>

Official pick:<\/strong> Alexander Volkanovski by Unanimous Decision<\/p>

We are backing Volkanovski to defend his title with a clear unanimous decision, likely 49-46 or 48-47 on all scorecards. The Australian’s superior cardio, striking volume, and fight IQ should prove decisive in front of his home crowd. Volkanovski should control rounds 2, 3, 4, and 5 with relentless pace and accuracy, while Lopes steals round 1and maybe 3 with a strong grappling sequence. <\/p>

The height disadvantage creates challenges, but Volk’s pressure and volume should overwhelm Lopes’ reach. The Brazilian’s improved game plan includes more submission attempts and body work, but Volkanovski’s championship experience and home-country advantage should carry the night. This victory solidifies Volkanovski’s legacy as one of the greatest featherweights ever.<\/p>

How to Bet UFC 325: Tips for This Card<\/strong><\/h2>

Beyond the featherweight championship main event, UFC 325 offers several compelling matchups that create both opportunities and traps for bettors.<\/p>

Card Tips:<\/strong><\/h3>
    \n
  • This is Volkanovski’s first title defense in Australia since winning the belt. Home-country advantage and crowd support make him an even stronger play than odds suggest.<\/li>\n<\/ul>
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    • Rematches favor the winner of the first fight 65% of the time in UFC history. Volkanovski’s previous victory creates strong precedent for repeat performance.<\/li>\n<\/ul>
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      • Lopes showed improved striking against Jean Silva with spinning elbow knockout. His evolution makes him dangerous, but nine months may not be enough time to close the gap.<\/li>\n<\/ul>

        UFC 325 Fight Card<\/strong><\/h2>

        Main Card (09:30 p.m. ET – Paramount+)<\/strong><\/p>

        Alexander Volkanovski (c) vs Diego Lopes – UFC Featherweight Championship, 5 rounds<\/p>

        Dan Hooker vs Benoit Saint-Denis – Lightweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

        Rafael Fiziev vs Mauricio Ruffy – Lightweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

        Tai Tuivasa vs Thiago Santos – Heavyweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

        Quinlan Salkilld vs Jamie Mullarkey – Lightweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

        Prelims (7:30 pm. ET – Paramount+)<\/strong><\/p>

        Justin Tafa vs Billy Elekana – Heavyweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

        Cam Rowston vs Cody Brundage – Middleweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

        Jacob Malkoun vs Torrez Finney – Middleweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

        Jonathan Micallef vs Oban Elliott – Welterweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

        Early Prelims (5:30 p.m. ET – Paramount+)<\/strong><\/p>

        Kaan Ofli vs Yi Zha – Featherweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

        Kim Sang-wook vs Dom Mar Fan – Lightweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

        Keiichiro Nakamura vs Sebastian Szalay – Featherweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

        Sulangrangbo vs Lawrence Lui – Bantamweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

        Aaron Tau vs Namsrai Batbayar – Flyweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

        Odds current as of January 27 2026.<\/em><\/p>

        (Image Credit: Sam Navarro – Imagn Images)<\/strong><\/p>\n

        \n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        UFC 325 returns to Australia with a historic featherweight championship rematch featuring Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes. Volkanovski makes his first title defense on home soil and Lopes seeks redemption in this title rematch, This 5-round main event will be held at Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney. Volkanovski brings a 27-4 record with the recent […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":649259,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"page-betting.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_mux_skip_reasons":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[1783,4513],"tags":[5729,1964,10759],"class_list":["post-649250","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mma","category-ufc-predictions","tag-alexander-volkanovski","tag-diego-lopes","tag-ufc-325"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nUFC 325: Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes 2 – Predictions, Odds, Best Bets & How To Watch - The Playoffs<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Our UFC 325 Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes 2 prediction breaks down the latest odds, props, expert verdict and how to watch the fight.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/theplayoffs.news\/en\/ufc-325-alexander-volkanovski-vs-diego-lopes-2-predictions-odds\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"UFC 325: Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes 2 – Predictions, Odds, Best Bets & How To Watch - 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