{"id":649190,"date":"2026-01-27T20:03:52","date_gmt":"2026-01-27T19:03:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/theplayoffs.news\/en\/?p=649190"},"modified":"2026-01-27T20:03:58","modified_gmt":"2026-01-27T19:03:58","slug":"tennis-novak-djokovic-vs-lorenzo-musetti-prediction-odds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/theplayoffs.news\/en\/tennis-novak-djokovic-vs-lorenzo-musetti-prediction-odds\/","title":{"rendered":"Novak Djokovic vs. Lorenzo Musetti Prediction, Odds &#038; Best Bets (Australian Open 2026, Quarterfinal, January 28)\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Fourth seed Novak Djokovic faces fifth seed Lorenzo Musetti in a 2026 Australian Open quarterfinal that pits proven Grand Slam control against extended-match resilience. Djokovic has not dropped a set in Melbourne, moving past Pedro Mart&iacute;nez, Francesco Maestrelli, and Botic van de Zandschulp. Followed by advancing in the fourth round via walkover when Jakub Mensik withdrew with an abdominal injury. At 38, the 24-time major champion remains firmly in contention for a historic 25th Slam.<\/p><p>Musetti&rsquo;s path has been far more physically demanding. After benefiting from a first-round retirement of Raphael Collignon, he beat Lorenzo Sonego in straight sets. Then he survived a five-set marathon against Tomas Machac and had a straight-sets win over ninth seed Taylor Fritz. Ranked No. 5, this marks Musetti&rsquo;s deepest run in Melbourne and continues a pattern of long matches against elite opposition.<\/p><figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">38 years young and still moving like this&hellip;<br><br>Novak Djokovic&rsquo;s athleticism is simply unreal &#129327; <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/kQItNdH1Gj\" class=\"trk-cta-link\" data-cta-trk='{\"ctaType\":\"Link\",\"ctaSubType\":\"main\"}'>pic.twitter.com\/kQItNdH1Gj<\/a><\/p>&mdash; TNT Sports (@tntsports) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/tntsports\/status\/2013221664784285893?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" class=\"trk-cta-link\" data-cta-trk='{\"ctaType\":\"Link\",\"ctaSubType\":\"main\"}'>January 19, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure><p>Now, Djokovic is a clear favorite, but totals and set markets acknowledge Musetti&rsquo;s ability to extend matches. With both players posting strong serve efficiency in 2025 and Djokovic historically conceding sets to Musetti, the central tension lies between Djokovic&rsquo;s control and Musetti&rsquo;s resistance.<\/p><p>For today&rsquo;s tennis picks, here&rsquo;s how we&rsquo;re betting on Novak Djokovic vs. Lorenzo Musetti today, including our Best Bet, supporting angles, and a set-score prop for bigger prices.<\/p><ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Tournament &amp; Round: <\/strong>Australian Open, Quarterfinal (QF)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Surface: <\/strong>Outdoor Hard Court<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Format: <\/strong>Best of Five Sets<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Date &amp; Start Time: <\/strong>January 28, Not before 2:30 PM AEDT Local Time&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Court:<\/strong> Rod Laver Arena, Melbourne, Australia<\/li>\n<\/ul><p><strong>Best Bet:<\/strong> Over 38.5 Total Games (-120, <a href=\"https:\/\/theplayoffs.news\/en\/go-FanDuel-sports-us-en\" rel=\"nofollow noindex noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"FanDuel (opens in a new tab)\" class=\"trk-cta-link\" data-cta-trk='{\"ctaType\":\"Link\",\"ctaSubType\":\"main\"}'>FanDuel<\/a>)<\/p><p><strong>Book: <\/strong>Best price at <a href=\"https:\/\/theplayoffs.news\/en\/go-FanDuel-sports-us-en\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\" class=\"trk-cta-link\" data-cta-trk='{\"ctaType\":\"Link\",\"ctaSubType\":\"main\"}'>FanDuel<\/a><\/p><p>Our best bet for Novak Djokovic vs. Lorenzo Musetti is Over 38.5 Total Games (-120, <a href=\"https:\/\/theplayoffs.news\/en\/go-FanDuel-sports-us-en\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\" class=\"trk-cta-link\" data-cta-trk='{\"ctaType\":\"Link\",\"ctaSubType\":\"main\"}'>FanDuel<\/a>).<\/p><p>\n\n\n            <div class=\"MvpBookmakerTable\" >\n                                                            <div class=\"MvpBookmakerTableTopBlock\">\n                    <div class=\"MvpBookmakerTableTopBlock-item 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class=\"bonus-code__content__copied-text\">\n                        COPIED                    <\/div>\n                    <div\n                        class=\"bonus-code__content__value\"\n                    >\n                                                                        <span  class=\"first-half\">\n                        F                    <\/span>\n                                    <span  class=\"first-half\">\n                        A                    <\/span>\n                                    <span  class=\"first-half\">\n                        N                    <\/span>\n                                    <span >\n                        D                    <\/span>\n                                    <span >\n                        U                    <\/span>\n                                    <span >\n                        V                    <\/span>\n                                    <span >\n                        I                    <\/span>\n                                    <span >\n                        P                    <\/span>\n                                                            <\/div>\n                                    <\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                                                    <a rel=\"nofollow\"\n                        target=\"_blank\"\n                        href=\"\"\n                        class=\"MvpBookmakerTableCtaAndCode-top-cta\"\n                        data-cta-trk='{\"ctaBrand\":\"FanDuel\",\"ctaType\":\"Brand block\",\"ctaActivity\":\"sports\",\"ctaSubType\":\"main\"}'>\n                        <span>Claim now<\/span>\n                        <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/theplayoffs.news\/en\/wp-content\/plugins\/mvp\/assets\/img\/bookmaker_table\/right-arrow-white.svg\" alt=\"arrow\" class=\"--ltr\" \/>\n                    <\/a>\n                <\/div>\n                            <\/div>\n                            <\/div>\n                <\/div>\n                                                                    <div class=\"MvpBookmakerTable-separator\"><\/div>\n            <div class=\"MvpBookmakerTableTANDC\">\n                New customers only. Must be 21+ in most jurisdictions, but 18+ in DC, KY, and WY. Offer is valid only in eligible regulated states\/jurisdictions and not available in AR; void where prohibited. First online real-money wager only; cashed-out or bonus-funded bets are excluded.            <\/div>\n                                                    <\/div>\n            \n\n\n\n<\/p><h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Novak Djokovic vs. Lorenzo Musetti Odds<\/h2><p>Given below are the latest odds for Novak Djokovic vs. Lorenzo Musetti from the top sportsbooks. We are looking at the match money line, game handicap, and total games, plus some set betting markets where available.<\/p><figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Market<\/strong><\/td><td><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/theplayoffs.news\/en\/go-FanDuel-sports-us-en\" rel=\"nofollow noindex noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"FanDuel (opens in a new tab)\" class=\"trk-cta-link\" data-cta-trk='{\"ctaType\":\"Link\",\"ctaSubType\":\"main\"}'>FanDuel<\/a><\/strong><\/td><td><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/theplayoffs.news\/en\/go-betmgm-sportsbetting-us-en\" rel=\"nofollow noindex noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"BetMGM (opens in a new tab)\" class=\"trk-cta-link\" data-cta-trk='{\"ctaType\":\"Link\",\"ctaSubType\":\"main\"}'>BetMGM<\/a><\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Moneyline<\/td><td>Djokovic -300 \/ Musetti +240<\/td><td>Djokovic -350 \/ Musetti +220<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Game Handicap<\/td><td>Djokovic -4.5 (-116) \/ Musetti +4.5 (-116)<\/td><td>Djokovic -4.5 (-120) \/ Musetti +4.5 (-105)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Total Games (38.5)<\/td><td>Over -120 \/ Under -110<\/td><td>Over -118 \/ Under -105<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Set Betting<\/td><td>Djokovic 3-0 (+185) \/ Musetti 3-0 (+850)<\/td><td>Djokovic 3-0 (+190) \/ Musetti 3-0 (+900)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Total Sets (3.5)<\/td><td>Over -164 \/ Under +118<\/td><td>Over -178 \/ Under +140<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure><h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Novak Djokovic vs. Lorenzo Musetti Prediction &amp; Picks<\/h2><p><strong>Our Pick: Over 38.5 Total Games (-120, FanDuel)<\/strong><\/p><p>The moneyline implies Djokovic wins. In 2025, Djokovic won 77% of first-serve points, returned 32% of first-serve points, and converted 42% of break points (403 chances). Musetti&rsquo;s stats are slightly lower but still competitive with 72% first-serve points won, 30% first-serve return points won, and 39% break-point conversion across 540 opportunities. That gap supports Djokovic&rsquo;s favoritism.<\/p><p>Where totals gain value is in how Musetti loses, as his 2025 stats say, 310 aces and high break-chance volume, meaning he can protect serve often enough to stretch sets even when trailing. The Over 38.5 games capture both dominant and competitive Djokovic scripts.&nbsp;<\/p><p>\n\n\n            <div class=\"MvpBookmakerTable\" >\n                                                            <div class=\"MvpBookmakerTableTopBlock\">\n                    <div class=\"MvpBookmakerTableTopBlock-item MvpBookmakerTableTopBlock-item--flex2\">\n                                    <div class=\"MvpBookmakerTableLogo\" style=\"background-color: #1493ff\">\n                <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/theplayoffs.news\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/mm-business-data\/images\/brands\/9b4dabf72537-500-FanDuel.jpeg\" alt=\"FanDuel\">\n            <\/div>\n                                            <div class=\"MvpBookmakerTableTitleAndRate\">\n                <div class=\"MvpBookmakerTableTitleAndRate-title\">\n                    <div class=\"MvpBookmakerTableTitleAndRate-title-text\">\n                        FanDuel                    <\/div>\n                <\/div>\n           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           <div class=\"MvpBookmakerTablePros-item-text\">High total bonus ceiling<\/div>\n                    <\/div>\n                                    <div class=\"MvpBookmakerTablePros-item\">\n                        <div class=\"MvpBookmakerTablePros-item-check\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/theplayoffs.news\/en\/wp-content\/plugins\/mvp\/assets\/img\/bookmaker_table\/check.svg\" alt=\"check\" \/><\/div>\n                        <div class=\"MvpBookmakerTablePros-item-text\">Daily second-chance bet protection<\/div>\n                    <\/div>\n                                    <div class=\"MvpBookmakerTablePros-item\">\n                        <div class=\"MvpBookmakerTablePros-item-check\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/theplayoffs.news\/en\/wp-content\/plugins\/mvp\/assets\/img\/bookmaker_table\/check.svg\" alt=\"check\" \/><\/div>\n                        <div class=\"MvpBookmakerTablePros-item-text\">No promo code required<\/div>\n                    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Must be 21+ in most jurisdictions, but 18+ in DC, KY, and WY. Offer is valid only in eligible regulated states\/jurisdictions and not available in AR; void where prohibited. First online real-money wager only; cashed-out or bonus-funded bets are excluded.            <\/div>\n                                                    <\/div>\n            \n\n\n\n<\/p><h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Novak Djokovic Recent Form<\/h2><ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>French Open &ndash; Semifinal<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Wimbledon &ndash; Semifinal<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>US Open &ndash; Semifinal<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Shanghai Masters &ndash; Semifinal<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Athens &ndash; Title<\/li>\n<\/ul><figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">FOUR HUNDRED GRAND SLAM MATCH WINS &#128175;&#128175;&#128175;&#128175;<br><br>Novak Djokovic, you are out of this world &#129327; <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/2nSoMrpn7C\" class=\"trk-cta-link\" data-cta-trk='{\"ctaType\":\"Link\",\"ctaSubType\":\"main\"}'>pic.twitter.com\/2nSoMrpn7C<\/a><\/p>&mdash; TNT Sports (@tntsports) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/tntsports\/status\/2015016615352410543?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" class=\"trk-cta-link\" data-cta-trk='{\"ctaType\":\"Link\",\"ctaSubType\":\"main\"}'>January 24, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure><h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Lorenzo Musetti Recent Form<\/h2><ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Vienna &ndash; Semifinal<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Paris Masters &ndash; R32<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Athens &ndash; Final<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>ATP Finals &ndash; Group Stage<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Hong Kong &ndash; Final<\/li>\n<\/ul><figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">As good as it gets from Lorenzo Musetti! <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/lbmgGqYaBe\" class=\"trk-cta-link\" data-cta-trk='{\"ctaType\":\"Link\",\"ctaSubType\":\"main\"}'>pic.twitter.com\/lbmgGqYaBe<\/a><\/p>&mdash; US Open Tennis (@usopen) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/usopen\/status\/2015654985413915032?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" class=\"trk-cta-link\" data-cta-trk='{\"ctaType\":\"Link\",\"ctaSubType\":\"main\"}'>January 26, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure><h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Head-to-Head History<\/h2><p>Novak Djokovic has a 9-1 lead over Lorenzo Musetti in their head-to-head. The sole time Musetti managed to win was in 2023 in Monte Carlo, and even that was a comeback win. While the dominance is clear, several meetings required extended play, including five sets at Roland Garros and tight three-set finals.<\/p><figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><thead><tr><th>Year<\/th><th>Winner<\/th><th>Event<\/th><th>Round<\/th><th>Score<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>2025<\/td><td>Novak Djokovic<\/td><td>Athens<\/td><td>Final<\/td><td>4-6, 6-3, 7-5<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2025<\/td><td>Novak Djokovic<\/td><td>Miami<\/td><td>Round of 16<\/td><td>6-2, 6-2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2024<\/td><td>Novak Djokovic<\/td><td>Paris Olympics<\/td><td>Semifinal<\/td><td>6-4, 6-2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2024<\/td><td>Novak Djokovic<\/td><td>Wimbledon<\/td><td>Semifinal<\/td><td>6-4, 7-6(2), 6-4<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2024<\/td><td>Novak Djokovic<\/td><td>Roland Garros<\/td><td>Round of 32<\/td><td>7-5, 6-7(6), 2-6, 6-3, 6-0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2024<\/td><td>Novak Djokovic<\/td><td>Monte-Carlo<\/td><td>Round of 16<\/td><td>7-5, 6-3<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2023<\/td><td>Lorenzo Musetti<\/td><td>Monte-Carlo<\/td><td>Round of 16<\/td><td>4-6, 7-5, 6-4<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2022<\/td><td>Novak Djokovic<\/td><td>Paris<\/td><td>Quarterfinal<\/td><td>6-0, 6-3<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2022<\/td><td>Novak Djokovic<\/td><td>Dubai<\/td><td>Round of 32<\/td><td>6-3, 6-3<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2021<\/td><td>Novak Djokovic<\/td><td>Roland Garros<\/td><td>Round of 16<\/td><td>6-7(7), 6-7(2), 6-1, 6-0, 4-0 (Ret.)<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure><figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Novak Djokovic vs Lorenzo Musetti CRAZY Battle &#129327; | Athens Final 2025 Extended Highlights\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/iakJS4Sqolw?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure><h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Final Score Prediction &amp; Set-Betting Prop<\/h2><p><strong>Projection:<\/strong> Novak Djokovic wins in four sets.<\/p><p><strong>Higher Variance Set Prop: Over 3.5 Sets (-164, FanDuel).<\/strong> Given that this is a high-risk bet, it is recommended to use this as a secondary angle.<\/p><h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How can I watch Novak Djokovic vs. Lorenzo Musetti on TV and live stream?<\/h2><p>TV broadcasters for the 2026 Australian Open include ESPN and ESPN2 in the United States, TNT Sports in the United Kingdom, Channel 9 Network in Australia, Eurosport across Europe, beIN Sports in the Middle East and North Africa, and TSN\/RDS in Canada, with streaming on 9NOW for Australian viewers.<\/p><p>Streaming options vary by region and often require subscriptions. Viewers can access full coverage via ESPN+ (USA, all courts\/multiview), Discovery+ (UK\/Europe), Stan Sport (Australia), and global platforms like Tennis TV for select ATP matches on devices worldwide.<\/p><figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td>Match<\/td><td>Novak Djokovic vs. Lorenzo Musetti<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Date<\/td><td>January 28, 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Start Time<\/td><td>Not before 2:30 PM AEDT<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Tournament<\/td><td>Australian Open 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Event Type<\/td><td>Men&rsquo;s Singles (Grand Slam)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Surface<\/td><td>Outdoor Hard Court<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Court<\/td><td>Rod Laver Arena, Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>TV Coverage<\/td><td>ESPN, ESPN2, Tennis Channel (US), TNT Sports (UK), Channel 9 Network (Australia), Eurosport (Europe), beIN Sports (MENA), TSN\/RDS (Canada), 9NOW<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Live Streaming<\/td><td>ESPN+ (US, all courts), Discovery+ (UK\/Europe), Stan Sport (Australia), Tennis TV (global ATP select)<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure><p><em>Mandatory Image Credit: Mike Frey-Imagn Images<\/em><\/p>\n<div class=\"mm-layout mm-layout-type-global mm-layout-slot4\">\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Novak Djokovic vs. Lorenzo Musetti Prediction, Odds, Best Bets &#038; How to Watch<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40,"featured_media":649191,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"page-betting.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_mux_skip_reasons":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[4770,6290],"tags":[11046,4917,5053,4949],"class_list":["post-649190","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tennis","category-tennis-predictions","tag-2026-australian-open","tag-atp","tag-lorenzo-musetti","tag-novak-djokovic"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v23.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Novak Djokovic vs. Lorenzo Musetti Prediction, Odds &amp; Best Bets (Australian Open 2026, Quarterfinal, January 28)&nbsp; - The Playoffs<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Our Novak Djokovic vs. Lorenzo Musetti prediction breaks down the latest tennis odds, moneyline, game handicap and total games markets, plus our Best Bet, set-score props and how to watch the match.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/theplayoffs.news\/en\/tennis-novak-djokovic-vs-lorenzo-musetti-prediction-odds\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Novak Djokovic vs. Lorenzo Musetti Prediction, Odds &amp; 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