{"id":649020,"date":"2026-01-24T21:31:14","date_gmt":"2026-01-24T20:31:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/theplayoffs.news\/en\/?p=649020"},"modified":"2026-01-24T21:31:19","modified_gmt":"2026-01-24T20:31:19","slug":"carlos-alcaraz-vs-tommy-paul-prediction-odds-best-bets-australian-open-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/theplayoffs.news\/en\/carlos-alcaraz-vs-tommy-paul-prediction-odds-best-bets-australian-open-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Carlos Alcaraz vs. Tommy Paul Prediction, Odds and Best Bets (Australian Open 2026, Round of 16, January 25)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Still going strong in his quest for the Career Grand Slam, Carlos Alcaraz hits a Tommy Paul shaped roadblock in the Australian Open Round of 16. The World No. 1 is yet to drop a set at this year&rsquo;s event despite enduring three challenging matches so far. Paul, who has troubled <em>Carlitos <\/em>in the past, has been in fine form since the start of 2026. The winner of this match-up will face either Alexander Bublik or Alex de Minaur in the quarterfinal stage.<\/p><figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">OH MY ALCARAZ &#128561;<br><br>This is UNREAL &#128293;<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/carlosalcaraz?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" class=\"trk-cta-link\" data-cta-trk='{\"ctaType\":\"Link\",\"ctaSubType\":\"main\"}'>@carlosalcaraz<\/a> &bull; <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/wwos?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" class=\"trk-cta-link\" data-cta-trk='{\"ctaType\":\"Link\",\"ctaSubType\":\"main\"}'>@wwos<\/a> &bull; <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/espn?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" class=\"trk-cta-link\" data-cta-trk='{\"ctaType\":\"Link\",\"ctaSubType\":\"main\"}'>@espn<\/a> &bull; <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/tntsports?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" class=\"trk-cta-link\" data-cta-trk='{\"ctaType\":\"Link\",\"ctaSubType\":\"main\"}'>@tntsports<\/a>  &bull;  <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/wowowtennis?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" class=\"trk-cta-link\" data-cta-trk='{\"ctaType\":\"Link\",\"ctaSubType\":\"main\"}'>@wowowtennis<\/a> &bull; <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/AO26?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" class=\"trk-cta-link\" data-cta-trk='{\"ctaType\":\"Link\",\"ctaSubType\":\"main\"}'>#AO26<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/fSZZ2aITyo\" class=\"trk-cta-link\" data-cta-trk='{\"ctaType\":\"Link\",\"ctaSubType\":\"main\"}'>pic.twitter.com\/fSZZ2aITyo<\/a><\/p>&mdash; #AusOpen (@AustralianOpen) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/AustralianOpen\/status\/2014548220358086963?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" class=\"trk-cta-link\" data-cta-trk='{\"ctaType\":\"Link\",\"ctaSubType\":\"main\"}'>January 23, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure><p>Carlos Alcaraz is the top seed at this year&rsquo;s Australian Open. He defeated Adam Walton in Round-1, before edging past Yannick Hanfmann and Corentin Moutet in two tricky tests. The 22-year-old entered Melbourne Park on the back of a 71-9 campaign in 2025. Unlike Alcaraz who won eight trophies, Paul could not add to his tally of four career championships last year. The World No. 20 has a success rate of 60% on tour, including a semifinal appearance at this Grand Slam three years ago.<\/p><figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">American Tommy Paul is through to last 16 after Davidovich Fokina retires due to injury.<br><br>Wishing ADF a speedy recovery &#128591;<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/AO26?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" class=\"trk-cta-link\" data-cta-trk='{\"ctaType\":\"Link\",\"ctaSubType\":\"main\"}'>#AO26<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/3t2dIsbFNy\" class=\"trk-cta-link\" data-cta-trk='{\"ctaType\":\"Link\",\"ctaSubType\":\"main\"}'>pic.twitter.com\/3t2dIsbFNy<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Tennis Channel (@TennisChannel) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/TennisChannel\/status\/2014551735554265577?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" class=\"trk-cta-link\" data-cta-trk='{\"ctaType\":\"Link\",\"ctaSubType\":\"main\"}'>January 23, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure><p>According to the tennis betting odds on <a href=\"https:\/\/theplayoffs.news\/en\/go-betmgm-sportsbetting-us-en\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\" class=\"trk-cta-link\" data-cta-trk='{\"ctaType\":\"Link\",\"ctaSubType\":\"main\"}'>BetMGM<\/a>, Carlos Alcaraz is the favorite (-910) and Tommy Paul is the underdog (+575) in this Round of 16 contest on Rod Laver Arena. Here&rsquo;s how we are betting on this high intensity battle at the Australian Open 2026, including our best bets, supporting odds and a set-score prop for bigger prices.<\/p><ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Tournament &amp; Round: <\/strong>Australian Open 2026, Round of 16<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Surface: <\/strong>Outdoor Hard Court<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Format: <\/strong>Men&rsquo;s Singles, Best of Five Sets<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Date &amp; Start Time: <\/strong>January 25, Not Before 13:30 Local<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Court: <\/strong>Rod Laver Arena, Melbourne<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Best Bet: <\/strong>Tommy Paul +6.5 Games @ +104 as per <a href=\"https:\/\/theplayoffs.news\/en\/go-FanDuel-sports-us-en\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\" class=\"trk-cta-link\" data-cta-trk='{\"ctaType\":\"Link\",\"ctaSubType\":\"main\"}'>FanDuel<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul><p>\n\n\n            <div class=\"MvpBookmakerTable\" >\n                                    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           <\/a>\n                <\/div>\n                            <\/div>\n                            <\/div>\n                <\/div>\n                                                                    <div class=\"MvpBookmakerTable-separator\"><\/div>\n            <div class=\"MvpBookmakerTableTANDC\">\n                New customers only. Must be 21+ in most jurisdictions, but 18+ in DC, KY, and WY. Offer is valid only in eligible regulated states\/jurisdictions and not available in AR; void where prohibited. First online real-money wager only; cashed-out or bonus-funded bets are excluded.            <\/div>\n                                                    <\/div>\n            \n\n\n\n<\/p><h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul Betting Odds<\/h2><p>Given below are the latest odds for Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul from the top sportsbooks. We are looking at the match money line, game handicap and total games, plus some set betting markets where available.<\/p><figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>Market<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/theplayoffs.news\/en\/go-betmgm-sportsbetting-us-en\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\" class=\"trk-cta-link\" data-cta-trk='{\"ctaType\":\"Link\",\"ctaSubType\":\"main\"}'>BetMGM<\/a><\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/theplayoffs.news\/en\/go-FanDuel-sports-us-en\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\" class=\"trk-cta-link\" data-cta-trk='{\"ctaType\":\"Link\",\"ctaSubType\":\"main\"}'>FanDuel<\/a><\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Moneyline<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Alcaraz (-910), Paul (+575)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Alcaraz (-1100), Paul (+680)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Game Handicap<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Alcaraz -6.5 (-124), Paul +6.5 (-103)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Alcaraz -6.5 (-138), Paul +6.5 (+104)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Total Games<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">&gt;33.5 (-113), &lt;33.5 (-113)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">&gt;33.5 (-112), &lt;33.5 (-118)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Set Betting<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Alcaraz 3-0 (-124)<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Alcaraz 3-0 (-120)<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure><h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul Prediction &amp; Picks<\/h2><p><strong>Our Pick: <\/strong>Tommy Paul +6.5 Games at +104<\/p><p>At one stage, the American powerhouse led the head-to-head against Alcaraz. He has a unique style of play dominated by flat baseline attacks and a ravishing backhand down the line. But once the Spaniard got a grasp of what to expect from Paul, he began mixing things up with more slices and half shots to vary the length and spin on the ball. Since their quarterfinal in Wimbledon two years ago, Paul has lost eight consecutive sets vs the World No. 1.<\/p><p>\n\n\n            <div class=\"MvpBookmakerTable\" >\n                                                            <div class=\"MvpBookmakerTableTopBlock\">\n                    <div class=\"MvpBookmakerTableTopBlock-item MvpBookmakerTableTopBlock-item--flex2\">\n                                    <div class=\"MvpBookmakerTableLogo\" style=\"background-color: #000000\">\n                <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/theplayoffs.news\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/mm-business-data\/images\/brands\/b6b0a2feb72c-500-BetMGM.jpg\" alt=\"BetMGM\">\n            <\/div>\n                                            <div class=\"MvpBookmakerTableTitleAndRate\">\n                <div class=\"MvpBookmakerTableTitleAndRate-title\">\n                    <div class=\"MvpBookmakerTableTitleAndRate-title-text\">\n                        BetMGM                    <\/div>\n            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AZ\/CO\/IL\/IN\/IA\/KS\/LA\/MD\/MA\/MI\/NJ\/OH\/PA\/TN\/ VA\/WV\/WY only. Offer not available in DC\/MS\/NV\/NY\/PR. New customers only. Qualifying deposit (min $10) and first real money wager required. If qualifying bet settles as a loss, user is refunded 100% in non-withdrawable bonus bets up to $1,500. Full T&Cs can be found on betmgm.com.            <\/div>\n                                                    <\/div>\n            \n\n\n\n<\/p><p>At the start of 2026, Alcaraz made a crucial change in his service motion. He has a more smooth serve, gets his right arm back and in the striking position earlier, and follows through much better to give himself a higher shot at keeping the points short. In his three matches so far, he has served 23 aces with his first serve percentage hovering around the 70% mark. Against someone like Paul who doesn&rsquo;t mind going the distance, we predict a game handicap of +6.5 games should be sufficient to yield a positive outcome.<\/p><h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Carlos Alcaraz Recent Form<\/h2><figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Carlos Alcaraz Top 10 Points | 2025 US Open\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/v2zEatHj2j0?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure><ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Nitto ATP Finals 2025: Final<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Paris Masters 2025: Round of 32<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Japan Open 2025: Winner<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Laver Cup 2025: Runner-Up<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>US Open 2025: Winner<\/li>\n<\/ul><h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Tommy Paul Recent Form<\/h2><ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Adelaide International 2026: Semifinal<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Brisbane International 2026: Round of 32<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>US Open 2025: Round of 32<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Cincinnati Masters 2025: Round of 32<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Wimbledon 2025: Round of 64<\/li>\n<\/ul><h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul Head to Head Record<\/h2><figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul EPIC | Cincinnati 2023 Highlights\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/dEJMQA8oBM8?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure><p>The head-to-head record between Carlos Alcaraz and Tommy Paul is currently 5-2 in favor of the six-time Grand Slam champion. This includes two Grand Slam duels, four matches at the Masters-1000 level and a quarterfinal at the Paris Olympics in 2024.<\/p><figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>Event<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>Round<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>Winner<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>Score<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">2025 Roland Garros<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Quarterfinal<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Carlos Alcaraz<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">6-0 6-1 6-4<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">2024 Paris Olympics<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Quarterfinal<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Carlos Alcaraz<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">6-3 7-6(7)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">2024 Wimbledon&nbsp;<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Quarterfinal<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Carlos Alcaraz<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">5-7 6-4 6-2 6-2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">2023 Cincinnati<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Round of 16<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Carlos Alcaraz<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">7-6(6) 6-7(0) 6-3<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">2023 Toronto<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Quarterfinal<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Tommy Paul<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">6-3 4-6 6-3<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">2023 Miami<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Round of 16<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Carlos Alcaraz<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">6-4 6-4<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">2022 Montreal<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Round of 32<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Tommy Paul<\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">6-7(4) 7-6(7) 6-3<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure><h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How to Watch Carlos Alcaraz vs Tommy Paul at the Australian Open 2026?<\/h2><p>The Australian Open 2026 can be viewed live on a variety of streaming platforms and TV channels across the world. This includes Tennis Channel, Stan Sport, ESPN International, TSN, beIN Sports, SuperSport, Canal+, Sony Sports, Eurosport and TNT Sports &ndash; depending on where you are watching from.<\/p><figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Curious for Alcaraz vs. Paul.<br><br>They are 2-2 on hardcourts &amp; all matches were great or close.<\/p>&mdash; Jos&eacute; Morgado (@josemorgado) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/josemorgado\/status\/2014570080084914512?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" class=\"trk-cta-link\" data-cta-trk='{\"ctaType\":\"Link\",\"ctaSubType\":\"main\"}'>January 23, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure><figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>Date<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">January 25, 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>Time<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Not Before 13:30 Local<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>Tournament<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Australian Open 2026, Round of 16<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>Surface<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Outdoor Hard Court<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>Court<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Rod Laver Arena, Melbourne<\/td><\/tr><tr><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\"><strong>TV\/Streaming<\/strong><\/td><td class=\"has-text-align-center\" data-align=\"center\">Tennis Channel, Stan Sport, ESPN International, TSN, beIN Sports, SuperSport, Canal+, Sony Sports, Eurosport, TNT Sports<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure><p><em>(Image Credits: Susan Mullane, Imagn Images)<\/em><\/p>\n<div class=\"mm-layout mm-layout-type-global mm-layout-slot4\">\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The World No. 1 renews a rivalry against a familiar foe on Rod Laver Arena.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":34,"featured_media":649023,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"page-betting.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_mux_skip_reasons":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[4770,6290],"tags":[4917,5069,10864,128,4948,4936,6324],"class_list":["post-649020","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tennis","category-tennis-predictions","tag-atp","tag-australian-open","tag-australian-open-2026","tag-betting","tag-carlos-alcaraz","tag-tennis","tag-tommy-paul"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v23.8 - 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