{"id":649003,"date":"2026-01-24T16:11:46","date_gmt":"2026-01-24T15:11:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/theplayoffs.news\/en\/?p=649003"},"modified":"2026-01-24T16:11:50","modified_gmt":"2026-01-24T15:11:50","slug":"tennis-alex-de-minaur-vs-alexander-bublik-prediction-odds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/theplayoffs.news\/en\/tennis-alex-de-minaur-vs-alexander-bublik-prediction-odds\/","title":{"rendered":"Alex de Minaur vs. Alexander Bublik Prediction, Odds &#038; Best Bets (Australian Open 2026, Round of 16, January 25)\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Sixth seed Alex de Minaur faces 10th seed Alexander Bublik in the fourth round of the 2026 Australian Open in Melbourne, with de Minaur priced as the favorite. The Aussie opened his campaign with a straight-sets win over lucky loser Mackenzie McDonald, then had to dig out a comeback win against Hamad Medjedovic. He tightened up again with a straight-sets victory over 29th seed Frances Tiafoe.<\/p><p>Bublik, however, arrives in this spot in far cleaner form through the draw. He&rsquo;s been razor sharp all week, recording straight-set wins over Jenson Brooksby, Marton Fucsovics, and Tomas Martin Etcheverry. That matters for totals and set markets, because Bublik&rsquo;s game is heavily serve-led. When he&rsquo;s seeing the ball well, he can keep sets on a narrow margin even against elite defenders.<\/p><figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Consistent king &#128081;<br><br>Alex de Minaur is back in the second week after defeating Frances Tiafoe 6-3, 6-4, 7-5. &#128170;<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/AO26?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" class=\"trk-cta-link\" data-cta-trk='{\"ctaType\":\"Link\",\"ctaSubType\":\"main\"}'>#AO26<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/kT5tX9SxTd\" class=\"trk-cta-link\" data-cta-trk='{\"ctaType\":\"Link\",\"ctaSubType\":\"main\"}'>pic.twitter.com\/kT5tX9SxTd<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Tennis Channel (@TennisChannel) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/TennisChannel\/status\/2014659718199857616?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" class=\"trk-cta-link\" data-cta-trk='{\"ctaType\":\"Link\",\"ctaSubType\":\"main\"}'>January 23, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure><p>Statistically, de Minaur&rsquo;s 2025 stats explain why the market still leans his way, with 73% first-serve points won paired with an elite 32% first-serve return points won. Plus 43% breakpoint conversion across 597 opportunities. But Bublik&rsquo;s ceiling is obvious too, coming off a Hong Kong title and posting 674 aces with 79% first-serve points won in 2025. This dynamic often pushes value toward games and set volume rather than paying a premium on the moneyline.<\/p><p>For today&rsquo;s tennis picks, here&rsquo;s how we&rsquo;re betting on Alex de Minaur vs. Alexander Bublik today, including our Best Bet, supporting angles, and a set-score prop for bigger prices.<\/p><ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Tournament &amp; Round: <\/strong>Australian Open, Fourth Round (R16)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Surface: <\/strong>Outdoor Hard Court<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Format: <\/strong>Best of Five Sets<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Date &amp; Start Time: <\/strong>January 25, Not before 7:00 PM AEDT Local Time&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Court:<\/strong> Rod Laver Arena, Melbourne, Australia<\/li>\n<\/ul><p><strong>Best Bet:<\/strong> Over 39.5 Total Games (-112, <a href=\"https:\/\/theplayoffs.news\/en\/go-FanDuel-sports-us-en\" rel=\"nofollow noindex noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"FanDuel (opens in a new tab)\" class=\"trk-cta-link\" data-cta-trk='{\"ctaType\":\"Link\",\"ctaSubType\":\"main\"}'>FanDuel<\/a>)<\/p><p><strong>Book: <\/strong>Best price at <a href=\"https:\/\/theplayoffs.news\/en\/go-FanDuel-sports-us-en\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\" class=\"trk-cta-link\" data-cta-trk='{\"ctaType\":\"Link\",\"ctaSubType\":\"main\"}'>FanDuel<\/a><\/p><p>Our best bet for Alex de Minaur vs. Alexander Bublik is Over 39.5 Total Games (-112, <a href=\"https:\/\/theplayoffs.news\/en\/go-FanDuel-sports-us-en\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\" class=\"trk-cta-link\" data-cta-trk='{\"ctaType\":\"Link\",\"ctaSubType\":\"main\"}'>FanDuel<\/a>).<\/p><p>\n\n\n            <div class=\"MvpBookmakerTable\" >\n                                                            <div class=\"MvpBookmakerTableTopBlock\">\n                    <div class=\"MvpBookmakerTableTopBlock-item MvpBookmakerTableTopBlock-item--flex2\">\n                                    <div 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   <\/span>\n                                    <span >\n                        P                    <\/span>\n                                                            <\/div>\n                                    <\/div>\n            <\/div>\n                                                    <a rel=\"nofollow\"\n                        target=\"_blank\"\n                        href=\"\"\n                        class=\"MvpBookmakerTableCtaAndCode-top-cta\"\n                        data-cta-trk='{\"ctaBrand\":\"FanDuel\",\"ctaType\":\"Brand block\",\"ctaActivity\":\"sports\",\"ctaSubType\":\"main\"}'>\n                        <span>Claim now<\/span>\n                        <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/theplayoffs.news\/en\/wp-content\/plugins\/mvp\/assets\/img\/bookmaker_table\/right-arrow-white.svg\" alt=\"arrow\" class=\"--ltr\" \/>\n                    <\/a>\n                <\/div>\n                            <\/div>\n                            <\/div>\n                <\/div>\n                                                                    <div class=\"MvpBookmakerTable-separator\"><\/div>\n            <div class=\"MvpBookmakerTableTANDC\">\n                New customers only. Must be 21+ in most jurisdictions, but 18+ in DC, KY, and WY. Offer is valid only in eligible regulated states\/jurisdictions and not available in AR; void where prohibited. First online real-money wager only; cashed-out or bonus-funded bets are excluded.            <\/div>\n                                                    <\/div>\n            \n\n\n\n<\/p><h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Alex de Minaur vs. Alexander Bublik Odds<\/h2><p>Given below are the latest odds for Alex de Minaur vs. Alexander Bublik from the top sportsbooks. We are looking at the match money line, game handicap, and total games, plus some set betting markets where available.<\/p><figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Market<\/strong><\/td><td><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/theplayoffs.news\/en\/go-FanDuel-sports-us-en\" rel=\"nofollow noindex noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"FanDuel (opens in a new tab)\" class=\"trk-cta-link\" data-cta-trk='{\"ctaType\":\"Link\",\"ctaSubType\":\"main\"}'>FanDuel<\/a><\/strong><\/td><td><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/theplayoffs.news\/en\/go-betmgm-sportsbetting-us-en\" rel=\"nofollow noindex noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"BetMGM (opens in a new tab)\" class=\"trk-cta-link\" data-cta-trk='{\"ctaType\":\"Link\",\"ctaSubType\":\"main\"}'>BetMGM<\/a><\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Moneyline&nbsp;<\/td><td>de Minaur -166 \/ Bublik +138<\/td><td>de Minaur -175 \/ Bublik +135<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Game Handicap<\/td><td>de Minaur -2.5 -120 \/ Bublik +2.5 -110<\/td><td>de Minaur -2.5 -114 \/ Bublik +2.5 -114<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Total Games<\/td><td>Over 39.5 -112 \/ Under 39.5 -118<\/td><td>Over 39.5 -118 \/ Under 39.5 -110<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Set Betting<\/td><td>de Minaur 3-0 +260 \/ Bublik 3-0 +550<\/td><td>de Minaur 3-0 +270 \/ Bublik 3-0 +575<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Total Sets<\/td><td>Over 3.5 -182 \/ Under 3.5 +134<\/td><td>Over 3.5 -200 \/ Under 3.5 +160<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure><h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Alex de Minaur vs. Alexander Bublik Prediction &amp; Picks<\/h2><p><strong>Our Pick: Over 39.5 Total Games (-112, FanDuel).<\/strong><\/p><p>The market has de Minaur favored at -166, which makes sense if you believe his return quality consistently breaks down Bublik&rsquo;s serve over a long match. De Minaur&rsquo;s 2025 return stat (32% first-serve return points won) is elite, and it gives him the best serve-neutralizing you can ask for.<\/p><p>But Bublik&rsquo;s serve stats are so extreme (674 aces, 79% first-serve points won in 2025) that this still projects as a high-variance match environment. Even if de Minaur is the cleaner baseline player, Bublik&rsquo;s ability to protect service games increases the probability of at least one extended set. That&rsquo;s why the best price efficiency sits with Over 39.5 Games (-112).<\/p><p>\n\n\n            <div class=\"MvpBookmakerTable\" >\n                                                            <div class=\"MvpBookmakerTableTopBlock\">\n                    <div class=\"MvpBookmakerTableTopBlock-item MvpBookmakerTableTopBlock-item--flex2\">\n                                    <div class=\"MvpBookmakerTableLogo\" style=\"background-color: #1493ff\">\n                <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/theplayoffs.news\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/mm-business-data\/images\/brands\/9b4dabf72537-500-FanDuel.jpeg\" alt=\"FanDuel\">\n            <\/div>\n                                            <div class=\"MvpBookmakerTableTitleAndRate\">\n                <div class=\"MvpBookmakerTableTitleAndRate-title\">\n                    <div class=\"MvpBookmakerTableTitleAndRate-title-text\">\n                        FanDuel                    <\/div>\n                <\/div>\n                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First online real-money wager only; cashed-out or bonus-funded bets are excluded.            <\/div>\n                                                    <\/div>\n            \n\n\n\n<\/p><h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Alex de Minaur Recent Form<\/h2><ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Beijing &ndash; Semifinal&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Shanghai Masters &ndash; Quarterfinal<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Vienna &ndash; Semifinal<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Paris Masters &ndash; Quarterfinal<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>ATP Finals &ndash; Group Stage<\/li>\n<\/ul><figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Alex de Minaur wins a FANTASTIC point against Frances Tiafoe at the Australian Open<br><br>One minute he&rsquo;s at the back of the court defending<br><br>You blink&hellip; and he&rsquo;s back in the point finishing it off at the net<br><br>A true master of turning defense to attack<br><br>&#127462;&#127482;&#128558;&zwj;&#128168;<br> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/uz9oGISEfk\" class=\"trk-cta-link\" data-cta-trk='{\"ctaType\":\"Link\",\"ctaSubType\":\"main\"}'>pic.twitter.com\/uz9oGISEfk<\/a><\/p>&mdash; The Tennis Letter (@TheTennisLetter) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/TheTennisLetter\/status\/2014645105395958047?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" class=\"trk-cta-link\" data-cta-trk='{\"ctaType\":\"Link\",\"ctaSubType\":\"main\"}'>January 23, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure><h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Alexander Bublik Recent Form<\/h2><ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Shanghai Masters &ndash; R64<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Vienna &ndash; Quarterfinal&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Paris Masters &ndash; Semifinal&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Moselle &ndash; R16<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Hong Kong &ndash; Title<\/li>\n<\/ul><figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Alexander Bublik becomes the first man representing Kazakhstan to reach the Round of 16 of all 4 Grand Slam singles events.<br><br>This guy has become an absolute beast. <br><br>&#127472;&#127487;&#129653; <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/9Z42XhYG1i\" class=\"trk-cta-link\" data-cta-trk='{\"ctaType\":\"Link\",\"ctaSubType\":\"main\"}'>pic.twitter.com\/9Z42XhYG1i<\/a><\/p>&mdash; The Tennis Letter (@TheTennisLetter) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/TheTennisLetter\/status\/2014683121594335533?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" class=\"trk-cta-link\" data-cta-trk='{\"ctaType\":\"Link\",\"ctaSubType\":\"main\"}'>January 23, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure><h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Head-to-Head History<\/h2><p>Alex de Minaur had the lead 3-2 in his head-to-head over Alexander Bublik. However, in the more recent matchups, Bublik defeated the Aussie in five sets at Roland Garros 2025, and also won their Paris 2025 meeting in three sets. De Minaur took multiple earlier matchups, including Indian Wells 2024, plus two 2021 wins.<\/p><figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><thead><tr><th>Year<\/th><th>Winner<\/th><th>Event<\/th><th>Round<\/th><th>Score<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>2025<\/td><td>Alexander Bublik<\/td><td>Paris<\/td><td>Quarterfinal<\/td><td>6-7(5), 6-4, 7-5<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2025<\/td><td>Alexander Bublik<\/td><td>Roland Garros<\/td><td>Round of 64<\/td><td>2-6, 2-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2024<\/td><td>Alex de Minaur<\/td><td>Indian Wells<\/td><td>Round of 32<\/td><td>7-5, 6-0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2021<\/td><td>Alex de Minaur<\/td><td>Barcelona<\/td><td>Round of 32<\/td><td>7-6(3), 6-2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2021<\/td><td>Alex de Minaur<\/td><td>Antalya<\/td><td>Final<\/td><td>2-0, Ret.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure><figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Alexander Bublik v Alex De Minaur Entertaining Match Highlights! | Paris 2025\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/QyiaWyzsMCQ?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure><h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Final Score Prediction &amp; Set-Betting Prop<\/h2><p><strong>Projection:<\/strong> Alex de Minaur wins in four sets.<\/p><p><strong>Higher Variance Set Bet: Over 3.5 Total Sets (-182, FanDuel). <\/strong>Given that this is a higher variance bet, it is recommended to use this as a secondary option.&nbsp;<\/p><h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How can I watch Alex de Minaur vs. Alexander Bublik on TV and live stream?<\/h2><p>TV broadcasters for the 2026 Australian Open include ESPN and ESPN2 in the United States, TNT Sports in the United Kingdom, Channel 9 Network in Australia, Eurosport across Europe, beIN Sports in the Middle East and North Africa, and TSN\/RDS in Canada, with streaming on 9NOW for Australian viewers.<\/p><p>Streaming options vary by region and often require subscriptions. Viewers can access full coverage via ESPN+ (USA, all courts\/multiview), Discovery+ (UK\/Europe), Stan Sport (Australia), and global platforms like Tennis TV for select ATP matches on devices worldwide.<\/p><figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td>Match<\/td><td>Alex de Minaur vs. Alexander Bublik<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Date<\/td><td>January 25, 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Start Time<\/td><td>Not before 7:00 PM AEDT<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Tournament<\/td><td>Australian Open 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Event Type<\/td><td>Men&rsquo;s Singles (Grand Slam)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Surface<\/td><td>Outdoor Hard Court<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Court<\/td><td>Rod Laver Arena, Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>TV Coverage<\/td><td>ESPN, ESPN2, Tennis Channel (US), TNT Sports (UK), Channel 9 Network (Australia), Eurosport (Europe), beIN Sports (MENA), TSN\/RDS (Canada), 9NOW<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Live Streaming<\/td><td>ESPN+ (US, all courts), Discovery+ (UK\/Europe), Stan Sport (Australia), Tennis TV (global ATP select)<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure><p><em>Mandatory Image Credit: Mike Frey-Imagn Images<\/em><\/p>\n<div class=\"mm-layout mm-layout-type-global mm-layout-slot4\">\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Alex de Minaur vs. Alexander Bublik Prediction, Odds, Best Bets &#038; How to Watch<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40,"featured_media":649004,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"page-betting.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_mux_skip_reasons":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[4770,6290],"tags":[11046,5688,6669,4917],"class_list":["post-649003","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tennis","category-tennis-predictions","tag-2026-australian-open","tag-alex-de-minaur","tag-alexander-bublik","tag-atp"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v23.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Alex de Minaur vs. Alexander Bublik Prediction, Odds &amp; Best Bets (Australian Open 2026, Round of 16, January 25)&nbsp; - The Playoffs<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Our Alex de Minaur vs. Alexander Bublik prediction breaks down the latest tennis odds, moneyline, game handicap and total games markets, plus our Best Bet, set-score props and how to watch the match.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/theplayoffs.news\/en\/tennis-alex-de-minaur-vs-alexander-bublik-prediction-odds\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Alex de Minaur vs. Alexander Bublik Prediction, Odds &amp; 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