{"id":648222,"date":"2026-01-17T19:27:05","date_gmt":"2026-01-17T18:27:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/theplayoffs.news\/en\/?p=648222"},"modified":"2026-01-17T19:27:09","modified_gmt":"2026-01-17T18:27:09","slug":"tennis-daniil-medvedev-vs-jesper-de-jong-prediction-odds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/theplayoffs.news\/en\/tennis-daniil-medvedev-vs-jesper-de-jong-prediction-odds\/","title":{"rendered":"Daniil Medvedev vs. Jesper De Jong Prediction, Odds &#038; Best Bets (Australian Open 2026, First Round, January 19)\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The 11th seed, Daniil Medvedev, starts his 2026 Australian Open run against Jesper De Jong in the first round in Melbourne. Medvedev comes in off a Brisbane title over Brandon Nakashima in straight sets. He is a hard-court specialist, having elite stats in 2025, with 534 aces, 76% first-serve points won, and a strong 33% first-serve return points won. That return stat is the real separator, because it creates sustained pressure even against decent servers. <\/p><p>De Jong, ranked No. 73, has had a respectable trajectory with main-draw Slam appearances last season (outside Melbourne) and a finals run in Nordea. But he enters the Australian Open off early exits in Hong Kong and Adelaide. His 2025 ATP stats, with 74% first-serve points won, 28% first-serve return points won, and 36% break-point conversion, suggest that he can be competitive.&nbsp;<\/p><figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"da\" dir=\"ltr\">Daniil Medvedev is the 2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/BrisbaneInternational?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" class=\"trk-cta-link\" data-cta-trk='{\"ctaType\":\"Link\",\"ctaSubType\":\"main\"}'>#BrisbaneInternational<\/a> Men's Singles Champion &#127942; <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/lGKArjcqmK\" class=\"trk-cta-link\" data-cta-trk='{\"ctaType\":\"Link\",\"ctaSubType\":\"main\"}'>pic.twitter.com\/lGKArjcqmK<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Brisbane International (@BrisbaneTennis) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/BrisbaneTennis\/status\/2010294402049253694?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" class=\"trk-cta-link\" data-cta-trk='{\"ctaType\":\"Link\",\"ctaSubType\":\"main\"}'>January 11, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure><p>Here, Medvedev is overwhelmingly likely to win, but with the moneyline priced near unplayable, the only real question is whether De Jong can steal enough games or a set to disrupt the routine straight-sets way.<\/p><p>For today&rsquo;s tennis picks, here&rsquo;s how we&rsquo;re betting on Daniil Medvedev vs. Jesper De Jong today, including our Best Bet, supporting angles, and a set-score prop for bigger prices.<\/p><ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Tournament &amp; Round: <\/strong>Australian Open, First Round<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Surface: <\/strong>Outdoor Hard Court<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Format: <\/strong>Best of Five Sets<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Date &amp; Start Time: <\/strong>January 19, Not before 11:30 AM AEDT Local Time&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Court:<\/strong> Margaret Court Arena, Melbourne, Australia<\/li>\n<\/ul><p><strong>Best Bet: <\/strong>Total Games Under 30.5 (-118, <a href=\"https:\/\/theplayoffs.news\/en\/go-FanDuel-sports-us-en\" rel=\"nofollow noindex noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"FanDuel (opens in a new tab)\" class=\"trk-cta-link\" data-cta-trk='{\"ctaType\":\"Link\",\"ctaSubType\":\"main\"}'>FanDuel<\/a>)<\/p><p><strong>Book: <\/strong>Best price at <a href=\"https:\/\/theplayoffs.news\/en\/go-FanDuel-sports-us-en\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\" class=\"trk-cta-link\" data-cta-trk='{\"ctaType\":\"Link\",\"ctaSubType\":\"main\"}'>FanDuel<\/a><\/p><p>Our best bet for Daniil Medvedev vs. Jesper De Jong is Total Games Under 30.5 (-118, <a href=\"https:\/\/theplayoffs.news\/en\/go-FanDuel-sports-us-en\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\" class=\"trk-cta-link\" 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                             <div class=\"bonus-code__title\">\n                                                    Click to reveal code                                            <\/div>\n                                <div class=\"bonus-code__content\">\n                    <div class=\"bonus-code__content__copied-text\">\n                        COPIED                    <\/div>\n                    <div\n                        class=\"bonus-code__content__value\"\n                    >\n                                                                        <span  class=\"first-half\">\n                        F                    <\/span>\n                                    <span  class=\"first-half\">\n                        A                    <\/span>\n                                    <span  class=\"first-half\">\n                        N                    <\/span>\n                                    <span >\n                        D                    <\/span>\n    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src=\"https:\/\/theplayoffs.news\/en\/wp-content\/plugins\/mvp\/assets\/img\/bookmaker_table\/right-arrow-white.svg\" alt=\"arrow\" class=\"--ltr\" \/>\n                    <\/a>\n                <\/div>\n                            <\/div>\n                            <\/div>\n                <\/div>\n                                                                    <div class=\"MvpBookmakerTable-separator\"><\/div>\n            <div class=\"MvpBookmakerTableTANDC\">\n                New customers only. Must be 21+ in most jurisdictions, but 18+ in DC, KY, and WY. Offer is valid only in eligible regulated states\/jurisdictions and not available in AR; void where prohibited. First online real-money wager only; cashed-out or bonus-funded bets are excluded.            <\/div>\n                                                    <\/div>\n            \n\n\n\n<\/p><h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Daniil Medvedev vs. Jesper De Jong Odds<\/h2><p>Given below are the latest odds for Daniil Medvedev vs. Jesper De Jong from the top sportsbooks. We are looking at the match money line, game handicap and total games, plus some set betting markets where available.<\/p><figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Market<\/strong><\/td><td><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/theplayoffs.news\/en\/go-FanDuel-sports-us-en\" rel=\"nofollow noindex noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"FanDuel (opens in a new tab)\" class=\"trk-cta-link\" data-cta-trk='{\"ctaType\":\"Link\",\"ctaSubType\":\"main\"}'>FanDuel<\/a><\/strong><\/td><td><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/theplayoffs.news\/en\/go-betmgm-sportsbetting-us-en\" rel=\"nofollow noindex noreferrer noopener\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"BetMGM (opens in a new tab)\" class=\"trk-cta-link\" data-cta-trk='{\"ctaType\":\"Link\",\"ctaSubType\":\"main\"}'>BetMGM<\/a><\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Moneyline<\/td><td>Medvedev -3500 \/ De Jong +1280<\/td><td>Medvedev -1800 \/ De Jong +800<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Game Handicap<\/td><td>Medvedev -8.5 +104 \/ De Jong +8.5 -136<\/td><td>Medvedev -8.5 +115 \/ De Jong +8.5 -150<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Total Games<\/td><td>Over 30.5 -112 \/ Under 30.5 -118<\/td><td>Over 30.5 -114 \/ Under 30.5 -118<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Set Betting<\/td><td>Medvedev 3-0 -195 \/ De Jong 3-0 +3500<\/td><td>Medvedev 3-0 -182 \/ De Jong 3-0 +3300<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Total Sets<\/td><td>Over 3.5 +146 \/ Under 3.5 -200<\/td><td>Over 3.5 +145 \/ Under 3.5 -115<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure><h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Daniil Medvedev vs. Jesper De Jong Prediction &amp; Picks<\/h2><p><strong>Our Pick: Daniil Medvedev -5.5 Games (-126, FanDuel)<\/strong><\/p><p>This is one of those Round 1 matches where the market is right on the outcome but still beatable on efficiency. The moneyline is basically dead; (-3500) demands near-perfection in result probability. That doesn&rsquo;t always happen in tennis. One shaky service game, one dip in focus, or one extended set can change that.<\/p><p>The cleaner approach is to price the most likely match script. Medvedev&rsquo;s 2025 stats support dominance through repeated pressure. The 33% first-serve return points won stands out because it indicates he consistently creates holds for opponents. De Jong&rsquo;s serving numbers are fine (74% first-serve points won), but his return level (28% first-serve return points won) doesn&rsquo;t suggest he&rsquo;ll generate enough disruption.<\/p><p>That&rsquo;s why Under 30.5 games (-118) is the most efficient buy here. The main risk is volatility in best-of-five openers. If Medvedev sleepwalks through one set and drops it, the total is immediately fragile. But given the recent form (Brisbane title) and the return edge, the median outcome still projects as a controlled straight-sets win.<\/p><p>\n\n\n            <div class=\"MvpBookmakerTable\" >\n                                                            <div class=\"MvpBookmakerTableTopBlock\">\n                    <div class=\"MvpBookmakerTableTopBlock-item MvpBookmakerTableTopBlock-item--flex2\">\n                                    <div class=\"MvpBookmakerTableLogo\" style=\"background-color: #1493ff\">\n                <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/theplayoffs.news\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/mm-business-data\/images\/brands\/9b4dabf72537-500-FanDuel.jpeg\" alt=\"FanDuel\">\n            <\/div>\n                                            <div class=\"MvpBookmakerTableTitleAndRate\">\n                <div class=\"MvpBookmakerTableTitleAndRate-title\">\n                    <div class=\"MvpBookmakerTableTitleAndRate-title-text\">\n                        FanDuel              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                     <div class=\"MvpBookmakerTablePros-item-text\">High total bonus ceiling<\/div>\n                    <\/div>\n                                    <div class=\"MvpBookmakerTablePros-item\">\n                        <div class=\"MvpBookmakerTablePros-item-check\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/theplayoffs.news\/en\/wp-content\/plugins\/mvp\/assets\/img\/bookmaker_table\/check.svg\" alt=\"check\" \/><\/div>\n                        <div class=\"MvpBookmakerTablePros-item-text\">Daily second-chance bet protection<\/div>\n                    <\/div>\n                                    <div class=\"MvpBookmakerTablePros-item\">\n                        <div class=\"MvpBookmakerTablePros-item-check\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/theplayoffs.news\/en\/wp-content\/plugins\/mvp\/assets\/img\/bookmaker_table\/check.svg\" alt=\"check\" \/><\/div>\n                        <div class=\"MvpBookmakerTablePros-item-text\">No promo code required<\/div>\n          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First online real-money wager only; cashed-out or bonus-funded bets are excluded.            <\/div>\n                                                    <\/div>\n            \n\n\n\n<\/p><h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Daniil Medvedev Recent Form<\/h2><ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Shanghai &ndash; Semifinal&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Almaty &ndash; Title<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Vienna &ndash; R16<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Paris Masters &ndash; Quarterfinal&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Brisbane &ndash; Title<\/li>\n<\/ul><figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Daniil Medvedev has now won 22 professional career titles.<br><br>At 22 different tournaments.<br><br>He's NEVER won the same one twice.<br><br>One of the most incredible stats in tennis. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/kxkSUd6dnT\" class=\"trk-cta-link\" data-cta-trk='{\"ctaType\":\"Link\",\"ctaSubType\":\"main\"}'>pic.twitter.com\/kxkSUd6dnT<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Swish &#127826; Tennis (@Zwxsh) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Zwxsh\/status\/2010297293053055041?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" class=\"trk-cta-link\" data-cta-trk='{\"ctaType\":\"Link\",\"ctaSubType\":\"main\"}'>January 11, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure><h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Jesper De Jong Recent Form<\/h2><ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Stockholm &ndash; R32<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Vienna &ndash; Qualifiers<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Paris Masters &ndash; Qualifiers<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Hong Kong &ndash; R32<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Adelaide &ndash; Qualifiers<\/li>\n<\/ul><figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">ATP Tour Finalist! &#129321;<br><br>Jesper De Jong advances into a career first ATP Tour-level final with a 6-3 7-6 win over Ugo Carabelli<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/NordeaOpen?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" class=\"trk-cta-link\" data-cta-trk='{\"ctaType\":\"Link\",\"ctaSubType\":\"main\"}'>#NordeaOpen<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/LHjdtZhMzh\" class=\"trk-cta-link\" data-cta-trk='{\"ctaType\":\"Link\",\"ctaSubType\":\"main\"}'>pic.twitter.com\/LHjdtZhMzh<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Tennis TV (@TennisTV) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/TennisTV\/status\/1946557675417841730?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\" class=\"trk-cta-link\" data-cta-trk='{\"ctaType\":\"Link\",\"ctaSubType\":\"main\"}'>July 19, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure><h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Head-to-Head History<\/h2><p>Daniil Medvedev and Jesper De Jong do not have a head-to-head record yet.<\/p><h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Final Score Prediction &amp; Set-Betting Prop<\/h2><p><strong>Projection:<\/strong> Daniil Medvedev wins in straight sets.<\/p><p><strong>Higher Variance Set Prop: Daniil Medvedev 3-0 (-195, FanDuel). <\/strong>However, given that this is a higher-variance bet, it is recommended to use this as a secondary option rather than a primary one.<\/p><h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">How can I watch Daniil Medvedev vs. Jesper De Jong on TV and live stream?<\/h2><p>TV broadcasters for the 2026 Australian Open include ESPN and ESPN2 in the United States, TNT Sports in the United Kingdom, Channel 9 Network in Australia, Eurosport across Europe, beIN Sports in the Middle East and North Africa, and TSN\/RDS in Canada, with streaming on 9NOW for Australian viewers.<\/p><p>Streaming options vary by region and often require subscriptions. Viewers can access full coverage via ESPN+ (USA, all courts\/multiview), Discovery+ (UK\/Europe), Stan Sport (Australia), and global platforms like Tennis TV for select ATP matches on devices worldwide.<\/p><figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td>Match<\/td><td>Daniil Medvedev vs. Jesper De Jong<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Date<\/td><td>January 19, 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Start Time<\/td><td>Not before 11:30 AM AEDT<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Tournament<\/td><td>Australian Open 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Event Type<\/td><td>Men&rsquo;s Singles (Grand Slam)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Surface<\/td><td>Outdoor Hard Court<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Court<\/td><td>Margaret Court Arena, Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>TV Coverage<\/td><td>ESPN, ESPN2, Tennis Channel (US), TNT Sports (UK), Channel 9 Network (Australia), Eurosport (Europe), beIN Sports (MENA), TSN\/RDS (Canada), 9NOW<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Live Streaming<\/td><td>ESPN+ (US, all courts), Discovery+ (UK\/Europe), Stan Sport (Australia), Tennis TV (global ATP select)<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure><p><em>Image Credit: Imagn Images<\/em><\/p>\n<div class=\"mm-layout mm-layout-type-global mm-layout-slot4\">\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Daniil Medvedev vs. Jesper De Jong Prediction, Odds, Best Bets &#038; How to Watch<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":40,"featured_media":648223,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"page-betting.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_mux_skip_reasons":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[4770,6290],"tags":[11046,4917,5475,6704],"class_list":["post-648222","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tennis","category-tennis-predictions","tag-2026-australian-open","tag-atp","tag-daniil-medvedev","tag-jesper-de-jong"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v23.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Daniil Medvedev vs. Jesper De Jong Prediction, Odds &amp; Best Bets (Australian Open 2026, First Round, January 19)&nbsp; - The Playoffs<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Our Daniil Medvedev vs. Jesper De Jong prediction breaks down the latest tennis odds, moneyline, game handicap and total games markets, plus our Best Bet, set-score props and how to watch the match.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/theplayoffs.news\/en\/tennis-daniil-medvedev-vs-jesper-de-jong-prediction-odds\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Daniil Medvedev vs. Jesper De Jong Prediction, Odds &amp; 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