{"id":646784,"date":"2026-01-23T13:37:53","date_gmt":"2026-01-23T12:37:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/theplayoffs.news\/en\/?p=646784"},"modified":"2026-01-23T13:38:00","modified_gmt":"2026-01-23T12:38:00","slug":"ufc-324-waldo-cortes-acosta-vs-derrick-lewis-predictions-odds-best-bets-how-to-watch","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/theplayoffs.news\/en\/ufc-324-waldo-cortes-acosta-vs-derrick-lewis-predictions-odds-best-bets-how-to-watch\/","title":{"rendered":"UFC 324: Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Derrick Lewis \u2013 Predictions, Odds, Best Bets & How To Watch"},"content":{"rendered":"

UFC 324’s heavyweight clash features surging contender Waldo Cortes-Acosta taking on legendary knockout artist Derrick Lewis in a crucial divisional bout. Cortes-Acosta looks to extend his winning streak and crack the top five rankings, while the 40-year-old Lewis aims to prove he still belongs among the elite. This 3-round main card bout promises violence with both men combining for 28 career knockouts.<\/p>

Cortes-Acosta brings a 16-2 record with back-to-back first-round KO victories over Ante Delija and Shamil Gaziev. Lewis enters with a 29-12 record and holds the all-time UFC record with 16 knockouts, most recently stopping Tallison Teixeira in 35 seconds. Cortes-Acosta is around a -325 <\/a>favorite with Lewis at roughly +260<\/a> as the underdog.<\/p>

Here’s how we’re betting UFC 324: Cortes-Acosta vs Lewis, including our UFC predictions,<\/a> best bet, key props and an expert final verdict.<\/p>

Mini Fight Info Strip<\/strong><\/h2>

Event:<\/strong> UFC 324 – T-Mobile Arena<\/p>

Weight class:<\/strong> Heavyweight bout<\/p>

Fight length:<\/strong> 3-round main card fight<\/p>

Date & time:<\/strong> Saturday, January 24, 2026 – Main card 9:00 p.m. ET, walk time ~10:00 p.m. ET<\/p>

Venue:<\/strong> T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada<\/p>

Best Bet Card<\/strong><\/h2>

Best Bet:<\/strong> Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance (-280)<\/p>

Book:<\/strong> Best price at FanDuel<\/a><\/p>

Our best bet for this heavyweight slugfest is fight doesn’t go the distance at -280<\/a>. Below, we’ll break down the matchup and key props.<\/p>

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Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Derrick Lewis Odds<\/strong><\/h2>

Here are the latest odds from top sportsbooks.<\/p>

Market<\/strong><\/td>BetMGM<\/strong><\/td>FanDuel<\/strong><\/td>Best Odds<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Moneyline<\/strong><\/td>Cortes-Acosta -325 \/ Lewis +260<\/td>Cortes-Acosta -330 \/ Lewis +240<\/td>Cortes-Acosta -325 <\/a>(BetMGM)<\/td><\/tr>
Total Rounds O\/U 1.5<\/strong><\/td>Over -150 \/ Under +115<\/td>O-134 \/ +U106<\/td>U +115<\/a> (BetMGM)<\/td><\/tr>
Fight Goes The Distance<\/strong><\/td>+200<\/td>+210<\/td>+210<\/a> (FD)<\/td><\/tr>
Fight Doesn’t Go The Distance <\/strong><\/td>-295<\/td>-280<\/td>-280 <\/a>(FD)<\/td><\/tr>
Cortes-Acosta by KO\/TKO<\/strong><\/td>-120<\/td>-105<\/td>-105 <\/a>(FD)<\/td><\/tr>
Cortes-Acosta by Submission<\/strong><\/td>+1400<\/td>+2000<\/td>+2000<\/a> (FD)<\/td><\/tr>
Cortes-Acosta by Decision<\/strong><\/td>+250<\/td>+300<\/td>+300<\/a> (FD)<\/td><\/tr>
Lewis by KO\/TKO<\/strong><\/td>+325<\/td>+360<\/td>+360 <\/a>(FD)<\/td><\/tr>
Lewis by Submission<\/strong><\/td>+3500<\/td>+4500<\/td>+450<\/a>0 (FD)<\/td><\/tr>
Lewis by Decision<\/strong><\/td>+1200<\/td>+1000<\/td>+1200 <\/a>(BetMGM)<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>

Odds updated:<\/strong> January 21, 2026 – 8:00 AM ET. Lines may move before fight night, especially after weigh-ins or late injury news.<\/p>

Tale of the Tape – Key Stats to Know<\/strong><\/h2>

Before we get into the matchup, here’s a Tale of the Tape for Cortes-Acosta vs Lewis.<\/p>

Tale Of The Tape<\/strong><\/td>Waldo Cortes-Acosta<\/strong><\/td>Derrick Lewis<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Record<\/strong><\/td>16-2<\/td>29-12<\/td><\/tr>
Age<\/strong><\/td>34<\/td>40<\/td><\/tr>
Height<\/strong><\/td>6’4″<\/td>6’3″<\/td><\/tr>
Reach<\/strong><\/td>76″<\/td>79″<\/td><\/tr>
Stance<\/strong><\/td>Orthodox<\/td>Orthodox<\/td><\/tr>
Sig. Strikes Landed<\/strong><\/td>4.46<\/td>3.36<\/td><\/tr>
Striking Accuracy<\/strong><\/td>54%<\/td>49%<\/td><\/tr>
Takedowns<\/strong><\/td>1.63<\/td>0.42<\/td><\/tr>
Takedown Defense<\/strong><\/td>71%<\/td>64%<\/td><\/tr>
Submission Avg.<\/strong><\/td>0.2<\/td>0.0<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>

Cortes-Acosta holds a 1-inch height advantage and higher striking accuracy despite Lewis’ 3-inch reach edge. Both men land with knockout power but Cortes-Acosta has the volume edge. Lewis’ 64% takedown defense could be exploited by Cortes-Acosta’s wrestling. The age gap of six years heavily favors the younger Dominican.<\/p>

Fighter Breakdown – Waldo Cortes-Acosta Analysis<\/strong><\/h2>

Cortes-Acosta comes in with a 16-2 record including recent knockout victories over Shamil Gaziev, Ante Delija and Ryan Spann. The 34 year old Dominican is ranked #5 in the UFC heavyweight division and brings explosive finishing ability.<\/p>

Strengths:<\/strong> Devastating knockout power with 12 career KOs. Excellent output and cardio for a heavyweight (4.46 strikes\/min). Improving wrestling with solid top control. Never been finished in his career. Well-rounded with wins by KO, submission and decision.<\/p>

Weaknesses:<\/strong> Only faced two ranked opponents (Spivac, Pavlovich), losing the decision to Pavlovich. Can be hit clean in exchanges. 71% takedown defense leaves openings. Relatively untested chin against elite power. First fight against a legendary finisher.<\/p>

Betting Angles:<\/strong> Cortes-Acosta by KO\/TKO (-105<\/a>) is our primary method of victory play. His -325 moneyline is steep but reasonable against an aging Lewis. Under 1.5 rounds (+115<\/a>) offers value given both men’s finishing rates.<\/p>

Fighter Breakdown – Derrick Lewis Analysis<\/strong><\/h2>

Lewis brings a 29-12 record with victories over Rodrigo Nascimento, Tallison Teixeira and Marcos Rogerio de Lima in his last three. The 40 year old holds the all-time UFC record with 16 knockouts and remains one of the sport’s most dangerous one-punch finishers.<\/p>

Strengths:<\/strong> Unmatched knockout power and UFC knockout record (16). Incredible comeback ability. Devastating ground-and-pound finishing ability. Eight UFC fight night bonuses. Strong chin and durability against elite competition.<\/p>

Weaknesses:<\/strong> Age 40 with significant mileage and accumulated damage. Low output striker (3.36 strikes\/min). Poor cardio in extended fights. 64% takedown defense vulnerable to wrestlers. Submitted twice in recent years (Spivac, Almeida). Often loses early rounds before landing the bomb.<\/p>

Betting Angles:<\/strong> Lewis’ +260 moneyline offers decent upset value for his one-punch power. Lewis by KO\/TKO (+360<\/a>) is his realistic path to victory. Fight doesn’t go the distance is appealing regardless of winner.<\/p>

Best Bets For Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Derrick Lewis<\/strong><\/h2>

Best Bet: Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance (-280)<\/a><\/strong><\/h3>

This is pure heavyweight violence. Cortes-Acosta has finished 3 of his last 4 opponents, while Lewis stopped his last two in the first round with a combined fight time of 1 minute 14 seconds. Both fighters historically struggle to consistently reach the judges. Cortes-Acosta will push pace early, and Lewis will hunt for the counter bomb. At -280 (implied 73.7%), we think this finishes around 80-85% of the time, offering value even at this price.<\/p>

Value Prop: Under 1.5 Rounds (+115<\/a>)<\/strong><\/h3>

Building on our first bet, we see an early finish. Lewis’ last five fights averaged just 2.2 rounds, while Cortes-Acosta’s last three wins came in rounds 1, 1, and 2. Neither man has shown patience lately. At +115 (implied 46.5%), we think this hits closer to 55-60%, making it solid value.<\/p>

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Longshot Flier: Lewis by Decision (+1200<\/a>)<\/strong><\/h3>

Small stake only. While Lewis winning by decision seems unlikely given his finishing rate, this massive price offers value in a specific scenario. If Cortes-Acosta presses too hard early and gasses himself, Lewis could survive the early storm and coast to a decision using his experience and ring generalship. Lewis has won 5 UFC fights by decision, proving he can get there when necessary. Keep stakes at 0.25-0.5 units maximum on this extreme longshot.<\/p>

Prediction – Final Verdict<\/strong><\/h2>

Official pick:<\/strong> Waldo Cortes-Acosta by KO\/TKO<\/p>

We are backing Cortes-Acosta to stop Lewis in the second round. The younger, more active fighter will most likely press forward early, weathering Lewis’ dangerous first-round power. Cortes-Acosta’s superior cardio and output should wear down the 40 year old Lewis, leading to a KO\/TKO as Lewis slows and can no longer defend the volume. While Lewis’ power makes him dangerous until the final bell, the age and activity gap proves decisive. <\/p>

How to Bet UFC 324: Tips for This Card<\/strong><\/h2>

Beyond the heavyweight violence, UFC 324 offers several compelling matchups that create both opportunities and traps for bettors.<\/p>

Card Tips:<\/strong><\/h3>
    \n
  • Sean O’Malley vs Song Yadong in the co-main is a dangerous swing fight. O’Malley on a two-fight skid makes his -210 price questionable.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Lewis’ age (40) and recent quick finishes suggest his conditioning for later rounds is questionable. Early finish props carry extra weight.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Cortes-Acosta’s recent form (3 first-round finishes in last 4) indicates he’s peaking at the right time. His method-of-victory props offer better value than straight moneyline.<\/li>\n<\/ul>

    UFC 324 Fight Card<\/strong><\/h2>

    Main Card (9:00 p.m. ET – Paramount+)<\/strong><\/p>

    Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett – Interim Lightweight Championship, 5 rounds<\/p>

    Sean O’Malley vs Song Yadong – Bantamweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

    Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Derrick Lewis – Heavyweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

    Natalia Silva vs Rose Namajunas – Women’s Flyweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

    Arnold Allen vs Jean Silva – Featherweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

    Prelims (7:00 p.m. ET – Paramount+)<\/strong><\/p>

    Umar Nurmagomedov vs Deiveson Figueiredo – Bantamweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

    Ateba Gautier vs Andrey Pulyaev – Middleweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

    Nikita Krylov vs Modestas Bukauskas – Light Heavyweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

    Alex Perez vs Charles Johnson – Flyweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

    Early Prelims (5:00 p.m. ET – Paramount+)<\/strong><\/p>

    Michael Johnson vs Alexander Hernandez – Lightweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

    Josh Hokit vs Denzel Freeman – Heavyweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

    Ricky Turcios vs Cameron Smotherman – Bantamweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

    Ty Miller vs Austen Fugitt – Welterweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

    Odds current as of January 21, 2026.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>

    (Image Credit: Mark Zaleski \/ The Tennessean – Imagn Images)<\/strong><\/p>\n

    \n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    UFC 324’s heavyweight clash features surging contender Waldo Cortes-Acosta taking on legendary knockout artist Derrick Lewis in a crucial divisional bout. Cortes-Acosta looks to extend his winning streak and crack the top five rankings, while the 40-year-old Lewis aims to prove he still belongs among the elite. This 3-round main card bout promises violence with […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":646791,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"page-betting.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_mux_skip_reasons":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[1783,4513],"tags":[1937,10225,9342],"class_list":["post-646784","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mma","category-ufc-predictions","tag-derrick-lewis","tag-ufc-324","tag-waldo-cortes-acosta-2"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nUFC 324: Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Derrick Lewis – Predictions, Odds, Best Bets & How To Watch - The Playoffs<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/theplayoffs.news\/en\/ufc-324-waldo-cortes-acosta-vs-derrick-lewis-predictions-odds-best-bets-how-to-watch\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"UFC 324: Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Derrick Lewis – Predictions, Odds, Best Bets & How To Watch - The Playoffs\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"UFC 324’s heavyweight clash features surging contender Waldo Cortes-Acosta taking on legendary knockout artist Derrick Lewis in a crucial divisional bout. Cortes-Acosta looks to extend his winning streak and crack the top five rankings, while the 40-year-old Lewis aims to prove he still belongs among the elite. 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