{"id":646752,"date":"2026-01-23T13:15:59","date_gmt":"2026-01-23T12:15:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/theplayoffs.news\/en\/?p=646752"},"modified":"2026-01-23T13:17:03","modified_gmt":"2026-01-23T12:17:03","slug":"ufc-324-justin-gaethje-vs-paddy-pimblett-predictions-odds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/theplayoffs.news\/en\/ufc-324-justin-gaethje-vs-paddy-pimblett-predictions-odds\/","title":{"rendered":"UFC 324: Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett \u2013 Predictions, Odds, Best Bets & How to Watch"},"content":{"rendered":"

UFC 324 kicks off the Paramount+ era with a historic lightweight showdown at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Former interim champion Justin Gaethje faces surging British star Paddy Pimblett for the interim 155-pound title in a 5-round main event. This fight determines who faces undisputed champion Ilia Topuria later in 2026.<\/p>

Gaethje brings a 26-5 record and legendary violence, fresh off a unanimous decision win over Rafael Fiziev at UFC 313. Pimblett enters on a 7-fight UFC winning streak with victories over Tony Ferguson, King Green and Michael Chandler. The Liverpudlian is a -235 favorite with Gaethje around +190 as the underdog.<\/p>

Here’s how we’re betting UFC 324: Gaethje vs Pimblett, including our UFC predictions<\/a>, best bet, key props and an expert final verdict.<\/p>

Mini Fight Info Strip<\/strong><\/h2>

Event:<\/strong> UFC 324 – T-Mobile Arena<\/p>

Weight class:<\/strong> Interim Lightweight Championship bout<\/p>

Fight length:<\/strong> 5-round main event<\/p>

Date & time:<\/strong> Saturday, January 24, 2026 – Main card 9:00 p.m. ET, walk time ~11:00 p.m. ET<\/p>

Venue:<\/strong> T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada<\/p>

Best Bet Card<\/strong><\/h2>

Best Bet:<\/strong> Pimblett by Submission (+140<\/a>)<\/p>

Book:<\/strong> Best price at FanDuel<\/a><\/p>

Our best bet for UFC 324 is Pimblett by submission at +140<\/a>. Below, we’ll break down the matchup and key props.<\/p>

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Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett Odds<\/strong><\/h2>

Here are the latest odds from top sportsbooks. <\/p>

Market<\/strong><\/td>BetMGM<\/strong><\/td>FanDuel<\/strong><\/td>Best Odds<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Moneyline<\/strong><\/td>Gaethje +190 \/ Pimblett -235<\/td>+186 \/ -245<\/td>Gaethje +190<\/a> (BetMGM)<\/td><\/tr>
Total Rounds O\/U 2.5<\/strong><\/td>O -110\/-U 120<\/td>O-116 \/ U-110<\/td>O -110<\/a> (BetMGM)<\/td><\/tr>
Gaethje by KO\/TKO<\/strong><\/td>+350<\/td>+390<\/td>+390 <\/a>(FD)<\/td><\/tr>
Gaethje by Submission<\/strong><\/td>+2500<\/td>+2700<\/td>+2700<\/a> (FD)<\/td><\/tr>
Gaethje by Decision<\/strong><\/td>+550<\/td>+550<\/td>+550 (Both)<\/td><\/tr>
Pimblett by KO\/TKO<\/strong><\/td>+400<\/td>+460<\/td>+460<\/a> (FD)<\/td><\/tr>
Pimblett by Submission<\/strong><\/td>+100<\/td>+140<\/td>+140<\/a> (FD)<\/td><\/tr>
Pimblett by Decision<\/strong><\/td>+550<\/td>+500<\/td>+550<\/a> (BetMGM)<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>

Odds updated:<\/strong> January 21, 2026 – 2:30 AM ET. Lines may move before fight night, especially after weigh-ins or late injury news.<\/p>

Tale of the Tape – Key Stats to Know<\/strong><\/h2>

Before we get into the matchup, here’s a Tale of the Tape for Gaethje vs Pimblett.<\/p>

Tale Of The Tape<\/strong><\/td>Justin Gaethje<\/strong><\/td>Paddy Pimblett<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
Record<\/strong><\/td>26-5<\/td>23-3<\/td><\/tr>
Age<\/strong><\/td>36<\/td>31<\/td><\/tr>
Height<\/strong><\/td>5’11”<\/td>5’10”<\/td><\/tr>
Reach<\/strong><\/td>70.5″<\/td>72″<\/td><\/tr>
Stance<\/strong><\/td>Orthodox<\/td>Orthodox<\/td><\/tr>
Sig. Strikes Landed<\/strong><\/td>6.73<\/td>4.82<\/td><\/tr>
Striking Accuracy<\/strong><\/td>59%<\/td>51%<\/td><\/tr>
Takedowns<\/strong><\/td>0.76<\/td>2.12<\/td><\/tr>
Takedown Defense<\/strong><\/td>68%<\/td>57%<\/td><\/tr>
Submission Avg.<\/strong><\/td>0.1<\/td>0.9<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>

Pimblett holds a submission advantage with nearly one attempt per 15 minutes, while Gaethje lands more strikes with better accuracy. Gaethje’s 68% takedown defense will be tested against Pimblett’s grappling game. The 1.5-inch reach advantage for Pimblett could matter in an extended striking exchange.<\/p>

Fighter Breakdown – Justin Gaethje Analysis<\/strong><\/h2>

Gaethje comes in with a 26-5 record and victories over Rafael Fiziev (twice), Dustin Poirier and Tony Ferguson. The 36 year old is one of the most violent fighters in UFC history with a record 9 Fight of the Night bonuses!<\/p>

Strengths:<\/strong> Devastating leg kicks and power punching. Elite NCAA Division I wrestling credentials that he rarely uses. Exceptional cardio for five rounds. Underrated chin (only knocked out once since 2018). Relentless pressure and output.<\/p>

Weaknesses:<\/strong> Defensive liabilities from fighting with hands low. Age and accumulated damage from wars with Holloway, Chandler and Alvarez. Hasn’t fought for a legitimate title since losing to Khabib Nurmagomedov in 2020. Vulnerable to submissions when pressured to grapple.<\/p>

Betting Angles:<\/strong> Gaethje’s +190<\/a> moneyline offers legitimate upset value, but his path runs through a knockout. Gaethje by KO\/TKO (+390<\/a>) makes more sense than a decision, as he’s unlikely to control Pimblett on the ground. <\/p>

Fighter Breakdown – Paddy Pimblett Analysis<\/strong><\/h2>

Pimblett brings a 23-3 record with 7 straight UFC victories including wins over Michael Chandler, King Green and Tony Ferguson. The 31 year old Liverpudlian is a former Cage Warriors champion with a dangerous submission game and massive UK fanbase.<\/p>

Strengths:<\/strong> Elite Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu with 5 UFC submission wins. Excellent scrambling and transitions. Strong offensive wrestling (2.12 TD\/15min). Granite chin and underrated boxing with improved pocket defense. Championship experience from Cage Warriors. Durable and never been stopped.<\/p>

Weaknesses:<\/strong> 57% takedown defense leaves openings for wrestlers. Can get hit clean in exchanges. Questionable cardio in later rounds of decision fights. First UFC title fight brings massive pressure. Facing a significant step up in competition.<\/p>

Betting Angles:<\/strong> Pimblett by Submission (+140 <\/a>at FanDuel) is our primary angle. Gaethje has been submitted three times and rarely grapples. Over 2.5 rounds also appeals, as Pimblett may need time to get Gaethje down and work submissions.<\/p>

Best Bets For Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett<\/strong><\/h2>

Best Bet: Pimblett by Submission (+140<\/a>)<\/strong><\/h3>

This is the clearest path to victory for the favorite. Gaethje has been submitted by Khabib Nurmagomedov and Charles Oliveira. His defensive grappling is his biggest weakness, and he actively avoids using his wrestling. Pimblett submitted King Green in round one, stopped Chandler with ground and pound leading to a TKO, and has 5 total UFC submission wins. We see Pimblett mixing striking early, securing a takedown in rounds two or three, and finishing via rear-naked choke or triangle. At +140 (implied 42%), we think this hits closer to 55% of the time.<\/p>

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Value Prop: Over 2.5 Rounds (-110)<\/a><\/strong><\/h3>

Both fighters are extremely durable. Gaethje has only been stopped once since 2018, while Pimblett has never been finished. Pimblett’s likely gameplan involves feeling Gaethje out on the feet before committing to takedowns, meaning a round-one finish is unlikely. Gaethje’s cardio holds for five rounds, making him dangerous throughout. We see this going at least into round three before Pimblett secures position for a finish. At –110<\/a> (implied 52%), we think this hits around 65%.<\/p>

Longshot Flier: Gaethje by KO\/TKO in Rounds 1-3 (+550<\/a>)<\/strong><\/h3>

Small stake only. If the upset happens, it’s early. Gaethje hits harder than anyone Pimblett has faced and could land a devastating leg kick or overhand early before the grappling takes over. Pimblett has shown defensive holes in exchanges with lesser strikers. Keep stakes at 0.5 units maximum on this explosive but unlikely outcome.<\/p>

Prediction – Final Verdict<\/strong><\/h2>

Official pick:<\/strong> Paddy Pimblett by Submission (+140<\/a>)<\/p>

We are backing Pimblett to win via submission. Gaethje will have success early with leg kicks and pressure, likely taking round one on volume. Pimblett should be able to weather the storm, secure his first takedown late in round 2, and find a submission in round 3-4 as Gaethje tires from defending grappling. The matchup heavily favors Pimblett’s elite BJJ against Gaethje’s poor submission defense. While Gaethje’s power makes this dangerous, Pimblett’s well-rounded game and durability should carry him to interim gold. <\/p>

How to Bet UFC 324: Tips for This Card<\/strong><\/h2>

Beyond the main event, UFC 324 offers former champions and rising contenders that create both opportunities and traps for bettors.<\/p>

Card Tips:<\/strong><\/h3>
    \n
  • Historic Paramount+ debut creates added pressure and variance. Expect fighters to push for finishes on the big stage.<\/li>\n<\/ul>
      \n
    • Sean O’Malley vs Song Yadong in the co-main is a dangerous swing fight. O’Malley on a two-fight skid makes his -210 price questionable.<\/li>\n<\/ul>
        \n
      • Derrick Lewis vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta <\/strong>is pure finish hunting. Consider “Fight doesn’t go the distance” props heavily.<\/li>\n<\/ul>

        UFC 324 Fight Card<\/strong><\/h2>

        Main Card (9:00 p.m. ET – Paramount+)<\/strong><\/p>

        Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett – Interim Lightweight Championship, 5 rounds<\/p>

        Sean O’Malley vs Song Yadong – Bantamweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

        Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Derrick Lewis – Heavyweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

        Natalia Silva vs Rose Namajunas – Women’s Flyweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

        Arnold Allen vs Jean Silva – Featherweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

        Prelims (7:00 p.m. ET – Paramount+)<\/strong><\/p>

        Umar Nurmagomedov vs Deiveson Figueiredo – Bantamweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

        Ateba Gautier vs Andrey Pulyaev – Middleweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

        Nikita Krylov vs Modestas Bukauskas – Light Heavyweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

        Alex Perez vs Charles Johnson – Flyweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

        Early Prelims (5:00 p.m. ET – Paramount+)<\/strong><\/p>

        Michael Johnson vs Alexander Hernandez – Lightweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

        Josh Hokit vs Denzel Freeman – Heavyweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

        Ricky Turcios vs Cameron Smotherman – Bantamweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

        Ty Miller vs Austen Fugitt – Welterweight bout, 3 rounds<\/p>

        Odds current as of January 21, 2026.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>

        (Image Credit: Mark J. Rebilas – Imagn Images)<\/strong><\/p>\n

        \n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

        UFC 324 kicks off the Paramount+ era with a historic lightweight showdown at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Former interim champion Justin Gaethje faces surging British star Paddy Pimblett for the interim 155-pound title in a 5-round main event. This fight determines who faces undisputed champion Ilia Topuria later in 2026. Gaethje brings a 26-5 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":646781,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"page-betting.php","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_mux_skip_reasons":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[1783,4513],"tags":[2056,3215,10225],"class_list":["post-646752","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mma","category-ufc-predictions","tag-justin-gaethje","tag-paddy-pimblett","tag-ufc-324"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nUFC 324: Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett – Predictions, Odds, Best Bets & How to Watch - The Playoffs<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Our UFC 324 Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett prediction breaks down the latest odds, props, expert verdict and how to watch the fight.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/theplayoffs.news\/en\/ufc-324-justin-gaethje-vs-paddy-pimblett-predictions-odds\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"UFC 324: Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett – Predictions, Odds, Best Bets & How to Watch - 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